652
FXUS63 KMQT 250553
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UP.
- MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR US AFTER MONDAY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA PROGRESSIVELY MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING AS A DYING COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. WITH
THE LLJ LOSING STEAM (AS WELL AS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT) AND
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING MAINLY THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE U.P., NO SEVERE WEATHER IS REALLY
EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID, THERE MAY BE A STRONGER CELL OR TWO THAT
GETS SQUEAKED OUT AS BULK SHEAR IS STILL AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS ALONG
THE FRONT. THE BETTER, ALBEIT MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL, CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER COME BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING
SKIES ALLOW CAPE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER WHILE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 50 KTS. HOWEVER, WITH
THERE REALLY BEING NO SYNOPTIC FORCING MECHANISM TO 'PUNCH'
CONVECTION UP, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MESOSCALE
PROCESSES (LIKE THE LAKE BREEZE) TO GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS, SPC
KEEPS A MARGINAL (5%) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER US FOR HAIL AND
WIND TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MOST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE
INTO THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY (SAVE FOR THE NAM). WHILE A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS MOST LIKELY MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
GIVEN THAT IT'S PRETTY WEAK, THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO
BE MADE-UP BY THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY (HIGH POTENTIALLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY AROUND 70), BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS 1-3 KJ OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP; THEREFORE,
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO GET CONVECTION GOING, EVEN
IF THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER. WITH THE MODEL HODOGRAPHS
HAVING A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT, 0-3 KM HELICITY BETWEEN 100
AND 300 M2/S2, AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 45 TO 60 KTS, ALL OF THE
SEVERE THREATS WOULD THEORETICALLY BE ON THE TABLE, THE GREATEST
BEING SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE CAMS ARE
STRUGGLING STILL ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION, CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER ANY ONE SPOT REMAIN LOW (30%
OR SO) ACROSS THE U.P.. THAT BEING SAID, THE WESTERN HALF DOES HAVE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THERE AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER SBCAPE. THANKFULLY,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DROPS OFF AFTER THE SUN SETS SUNDAY
EVENING.
A STRONGER CLIPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON
MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BECAUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT (GENERALLY SPEAKING)
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER US DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED DUE TO THE
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING CREATING CAPE; THUS THE BETTER SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE DOWN IN THE LOWER PENINSULA. THAT
BEING SAID, WITH UP TO AROUND 1500 J OF MUCAPE AND 30 TO 50 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR TO WORK WITH, A LOW-END SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, EVEN THOUGH SOME CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MID-WEEK
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WE
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY WHERE WE REMAIN RAIN-FREE (MOST LIKELY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY). HOWEVER, AFTER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
THROUGH, POSITIVELY TILTED FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COULD SET US UP FOR ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SHORTWAVES ROTATING
INTO THE AREA TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY HOLD UNTIL ~11-14Z AT CMX/IWD THIS MORNING
WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT USHERS IN A ROUND OF SCATTERED -SHRA, MVFR
CIGS, AND POTENTIALLY -TSRA (30-45% CHANCE) FROM THE WEST. WITH -
TSRA THREAT DIMINISHING, BUT NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED THIS MORNING, ALL
TEMPO GROUPS WERE LOWERED TO PROB30 GROUPS AND THE -TSRA WINDOWS
WERE SHORTENED. REMOVED -TSRA ALTOGETHER AT SAW WHERE VFR LIKELY
PERSISTS THE ENTIRE 6Z TAF PERIOD (75% CHANCE). THE MVFR DECK IS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES (MAINLY
<30% CHANCE) FOR -TSRA RETURN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AT SAW WITH A
LAKE BREEZE, BUT NO MENTION WAS ADDED WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE AS
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. OTHERWISE SW WINDS HOLD STEADY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. SW TO W WINDS BEGIN TO
TAPER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE THIS MORNING,
EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE FRONT, SOME
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS COULD BE SEEN; WHILE NOT EXPECTED, A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK, SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON SUNDAY AND OVER THE WHOLE LAKE AGAIN ON MONDAY;
WHILE SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SEEN OVER THESE TWO DAYS, GIVEN
THE LACK OF SBCAPE OVER THE WATER ON SUNDAY AND THE WARM-SECTOR
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE MORNING OURS ON MONDAY,
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME (THINKING 2%
OR LESS). QUIETER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE SLIDING
EASTWARD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP
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