843
FXUS63 KMQT 251747
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY IN THE EAST HALF.
- THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
- GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE AFTER MONDAY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERHEAD UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AS TROUGHING
LINGERS AND A WEAK VORT MAX PIVOTS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF STORMS TODAY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING, VARYING DEGREES OF CAPPING FROM WEST TO EAST, AND MARGINAL
BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASING SHEAR. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS MANAGE TO ROOT
THEMSELVES TO A BOUNDARY AND TAP INTO ENOUGH OF A SHEAR/CAPE COMBO,
CANT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, TEMPS FALL
INTO THE 50S/60S WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE UNDER CALMING
WINDS AND INCREASE SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS A "RING OF FIRE"
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IS A STOUT RIDGE THROWING WEAK SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ALONG ITS NORTHERN FRINGES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TYPE OF SETUP GIVES US HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPATIAL COVERAGE, EXACT
TIMING, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE DEGREE OF SEVERITY. THE NEXT ROUND
PRESENTS ITSELF TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN
EARLY DAY STORM. LATEST CAM ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH OF THE UP. ENSEMBLE
>40 DBZ PAINTBALLS GIVE A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO ON WHEN AND WHERE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR. AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL STREAMWISENESS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO CANT RULE OUT
SOME SPINNING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WEAK
TORNADOES. SPC HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE RISK TO A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE UP.
A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, LIKELY BRINGING A POTENTIAL THIRD ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA. FAVORABLE KINEMATICS LOOK MORE
READILY AVAILABLE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN
REMAINS TO BE THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. A FASTER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAT WORKS ITSELF INTO THE UP IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS FAR NORTH. SPC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
UP AND ALL OF DOWNSTATE.
QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS BEYOND MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
EXPECT A DIP INTO MVFR CIGS OVER AT IWD AND CMX THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BRINGING (OR HAVING ALREADY BROUGHT IN
IWD'S CASE) SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SAW IS
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO, AND COULD SEE IT
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MUCH LESS CERTAIN ON SAW
HITTING MVFR CIGS, SO KEPT THEM VFR FOR NOW. AS WE CLEAR UP BEHIND
THE COLD, EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN AND FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS IWD AND CMX. SOME LAKE BREEZE-INDUCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD IMPACT SAW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING;
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON THIS OCCURRING, SHOULD IT OCCUR WE
COULD VERY STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS AT THE SFC AND POTENTIALLY SOME
HAIL. THE LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION DIES-OFF NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET.
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT, WE COULD DEVELOP FOG ACROSS SAW
LATE TONIGHT; WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW (~20%), DID LOWER
VIS TO 3SM AND CIGS TO SCT002 TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOG THREAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
BREEZY S TO SW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING CALMER WINDS <15 KTS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GREATER WINDS
(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL) MAY BE FOUND IN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN BRINGS
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON SPECIFIC TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF STORMS, BUT AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON
MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
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