032
FXUS63 KMQT 260629
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
229 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
- GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE AFTER MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HINT AT SPOTTY FOG TRYING TO
FORM, MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE 'BUST' IN
RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
LOW FOR THIS MORNING; WHILE I'M SURE SOME PATCHES COULD BECOME DENSE
FOR A SHORT WHILE, GIVEN THAT THE FOG IS NOT THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST PACKAGE, WILL LEAVE THE MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW; ALTHOUGH, IF THE FOG OVERACHIEVES, AN UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TODAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
BEING SEEN IN THE INTERIOR WEST. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
OVERHEAD, THE U.P. IS THEORETICALLY SITTING ON PRIME REAL-ESTATE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY; CONVECTION COULD BECOME SFC-BASED,
PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THE SMALL TO MODEST
CAPPING AT THE 850-700MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION, MUCAPES COULD JUMP TO 1
TO 3+ KJ/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE
BALLPARK OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A LARGE POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE FORCING MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING. RECENTLY,
SOME OF THE CAMS, AS WELL AS THE GFS, ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION EITHER JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/U.P. BORDER OR CALLING FOR A
PRECIPITATION BUST ALTOGETHER. BECAUSE OF THIS, DECIDED TO LOWER THE
CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY AND EVEN MORESO TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID,
THE LATEST (4Z) RUN OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAS SHIFTED THE CONVECTION
THAT COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWARDS INTO THE U.P.. SHOULD
WE HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD TODAY, THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH ALL THREATS ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER,
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED CELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE, SPC HAS STILL KEPT
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL UNDER A SLIGHT (>15%) RISK, WHEREAS THE
EAST REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL (>5%) RISK; THE TORNADO RISK IS >2%
OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL, WHEREAS THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL; AS FOR THE EAST, THERE IS ONLY
A 5% CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE CONVECTION
WOULD MOST LIKELY NOT REACH OVER THERE UNTIL THE EVENING OR LATER
HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH IT IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY, SEVERE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS A SECONDARY THREAT AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASS BY. AGAIN, LOOKING AT THE LATEST
CAMS, I'M NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON EITHER THE PLACEMENT OR TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION; IT IS POSSIBLE (AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE IN MY OWN
ESTIMATION) THAT THE CONVECTION MISSES US ENTIRELY ON MONDAY, MOST
LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF US (HITTING WI INSTEAD). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
KNOWN ISSUE OF CAMS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE PLACEMENT OF
INDIVIDUAL CELLS, THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL A NON-ZERO CHANCE SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE SEEN IN THE U.P. COME MONDAY AS BULK SHEARS STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AT 40 TO 55 KNOTS AND MUCAPES COULD REBOUND UP TO
AROUND 2 KJ/KG NEAR THE WI BORDER. THEREFORE, WHILE I'M LEANING
TOWARDS MONDAY BEING A 'BUST' FOR SEVERE CONVECTION, I WOULDN'T RULE
IT OUT JUST QUITE YET.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW ON MONDAY, EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
CANADA. WITH A SEMI-OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK CANADIAN SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA (MAINLY THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST). HOWEVER, BECAUSE RECENT
MEDIUM-RANGE RUNS ARE SHOWING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING LOCALLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THINKING WE WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT REMAIN DRY UNTIL POTENTIALLY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR PREVAILS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. FOG BECOMES MOST LIKELY AT CMX AND SAW, THOUGH
SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT IWD. FOG MAY DROP VISIBILITY TO
MVFR OR LOWER; CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR
AIRPORT MINS TO COME INTO PLAY AS WE CLOSE IN TO 12Z THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE WESTERLY INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY,
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
ERRATIC WINDS AND POTENTIAL DROPS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE STORMS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS DOMINATE THIS WEEK. THAT BEING SAID,
SOME CONVECTION, POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE, COULD BE SEEN OVER
MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW (LESS THAN 30%
CHANCE). SHOULD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAPPEN, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL WITH A LOW-END
CHANCE FOR A TORNADIC WATERSPOUT. SOME STRONGER CONVECTION COULD
ALSO APPEAR ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS HAPPENING IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY'S (20-25% OR LESS); DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD IT OCCUR. EXPECT QUIETER
WEATHER FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ162-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC/TAP
MARINE...TAP
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