520
FXUS63 KMQT 261725
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE, HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE A WARNING, AND HAVE A PLAN SHOULD ONE BE ISSUED.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
(MONDAY), HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SPATIAL EXTENT AND
SPECIFIC TIMING.
- GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE AFTER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A "RING OF FIRE" UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH PARTS OF MONDAY BEFORE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS "QUIETER" WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE MIDWEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, DRIVING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MN INTO SUPERIOR/UP AND INITIATING ADDITIONAL STORMS. INCREASED
ASCENT AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL HELP ERODE A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY ATOP THE UP. BE THE TIME THE CAP ERODES, A FAIRLY VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CAM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEALTHY MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES PUSHING 45-55 KTS. LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND WEST SHOW FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AND HIGH LCLS
WITH RATHER STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN 1-6 KM, POINTING TO
MORE OF A HAIL/WIND THREAT. STILL, 0-1 KM SRH PUSHES 50-150 M2/S2 AT
TIMES, SO IF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAN TAP INTO AMPLE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS BETWEEN 1000-1500 DCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
HALF, THUS AIR PARCELS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TO
CREATE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
CAN MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS TIMING OUT CONVECTION. CAMS ARE STILL STRUGGLING ON THE SPATIAL
EXTENT AND SPECIFIC TIMING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE
BULK OF CAM MEMBERS SUGGEST ACTIVITY REACHING THE WESTERN UP/LAKE
BETWEEN 5-7 PM EDT CARRYING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS MORNING
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A WIND/HAIL DRIVEN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF WI, INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR BORDER
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS FOR MOST
OF THE UP. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE TONIGHT. HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE A WARNING AND A PLAN
SHOULD ONE BE ISSUED!
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A
DEEPER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SPC CONTINUES TO
PLACE MOST OF THE UP IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ROUND AS WELL, AND IT
MAY HAVE SOME CONTINGENCY ON HOW STORM BEHAVIOR OCCURS TONIGHT. CAM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS, NOR DOES
IT HAVE ANY HANDLE ON TIMING/SPATIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW ON MONDAY, EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
CANADA. WITH A SEMI-OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK CANADIAN SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA (MAINLY THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST). HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE
RUNS ARE SHOWING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING LOCALLY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THINKING WE WILL
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT REMAIN DRY UNTIL POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH THE ONLY ELEVATED CLOUDS AT
16Z BEING SOME HIGH CIRRUS SOUTH OF IWD AND SOME ELEVATED WILDFIRE
SMOKE CAUSING A MILKY WHITE SKY BUT OTHERWISE NOT REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN A MEANINGFUL WAY. THE MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION IN THIS
FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TSRA WILL MOVE
NEAR AND/OR INTO THE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST, WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (~30%) OF THIS
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTING IWD AND A SLIGHT RISK (15-30%) OF
OCCURRENCE AT CMX/IWD, WITH THE WINDOW OF HIGHEST RISK FOR EACH
BEGINNING AT 19-20Z AT ALL SITES AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 01Z
AT CMX/IWD AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z AT SAW, WITH LESSER RISKS
(AROUND 5- 15%) IN THE PRECEDING AND PROCEEDING HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS,THE ONLY THREATS TO
VIS AND CEILINGS WILL BE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MARINE FOG LAYER TO SWEEP OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR BELOW
AT 30-40% ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WINDS <15-20 KTS DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK. THE
MAIN MARINE HAZARDS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL (>50 KTS AND >1" IN DIAMETER). A
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, HOWEVER, THE WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE MAY
BE IN THE GREATEST RISK. A SECONDARY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP TOMORROW (MONDAY), BUT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AGAIN ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, TRANSIENT MARINE FOG IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162-243-244-251-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW
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