158
FXUS63 KMQT 262356
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE, HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE A WARNING, AND HAVE A PLAN SHOULD ONE BE ISSUED.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
(MONDAY), HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SPATIAL EXTENT AND
SPECIFIC TIMING.
- GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE AFTER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD OFF OVER THE UP, LIKELY
COURTESY OF DRY LOWER LEVELS AND CAPPING IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION AROUND THUNDER BAY AND IN
THE ARROWHEAD. CAMS THAT ARE CATCHING THIS (PARTICULARLY THE LATEST
HRRR) BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA AROUND 03-06Z; IN
PARTICULAR, THE NORTHERN BATCH OF CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT THE
KEWEENAW, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR, AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN UP WHILE THE ARROWHEAD BATCH GRAZES THE UP/WI BORDER. STORMS
OVER NORTHERN MN SO FAR HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE, WHILE STRONGER
STORMS MOVING OFF OF THUNDER BAY AND OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE SHOWN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BY THE TIME
CONVECTION REALLY LOOKS TO REACH THE UP, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE
HREF STILL SHOWS UP TO 1500J/KG OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS 30-40KTS OF
BULK SHEAR. SO, OUR THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS WORTH MONITORING, IF
PUSHED BACK A WAYS. IN THE MEANTIME, WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST
UPDATE, HAVE LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE UP BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A "RING OF FIRE" UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH PARTS OF MONDAY BEFORE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS "QUIETER" WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE MIDWEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, DRIVING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MN INTO SUPERIOR/UP AND INITIATING ADDITIONAL STORMS. INCREASED
ASCENT AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL HELP ERODE A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY ATOP THE UP. BE THE TIME THE CAP ERODES, A FAIRLY VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CAM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEALTHY MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES PUSHING 45-55 KTS. LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND WEST SHOW FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AND HIGH LCLS
WITH RATHER STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN 1-6 KM, POINTING TO
MORE OF A HAIL/WIND THREAT. STILL, 0-1 KM SRH PUSHES 50-150 M2/S2 AT
TIMES, SO IF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAN TAP INTO AMPLE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS BETWEEN 1000-1500 DCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
HALF, THUS AIR PARCELS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TO
CREATE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
CAN MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS TIMING OUT CONVECTION. CAMS ARE STILL STRUGGLING ON THE SPATIAL
EXTENT AND SPECIFIC TIMING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE
BULK OF CAM MEMBERS SUGGEST ACTIVITY REACHING THE WESTERN UP/LAKE
BETWEEN 5-7 PM EDT CARRYING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS MORNING
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A WIND/HAIL DRIVEN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF WI, INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR BORDER
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS FOR MOST
OF THE UP. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE TONIGHT. HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE A WARNING AND A PLAN
SHOULD ONE BE ISSUED!
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A
DEEPER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SPC CONTINUES TO
PLACE MOST OF THE UP IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ROUND AS WELL, AND IT
MAY HAVE SOME CONTINGENCY ON HOW STORM BEHAVIOR OCCURS TONIGHT. CAM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS, NOR DOES
IT HAVE ANY HANDLE ON TIMING/SPATIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW ON MONDAY, EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
CANADA. WITH A SEMI-OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK CANADIAN SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA (MAINLY THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST). HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE
RUNS ARE SHOWING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING LOCALLY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THINKING WE WILL
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT REMAIN DRY UNTIL POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF OVER THE UP SO FAR. HOWEVER, LATER TONIGHT,
STORMS OVER NORTHERN MN AND ONTARIO MAY FINALLY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
UP. STORMS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING IWD AFTER 03Z, THOUGH
SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE NEARING CMX CLOSER TO 03Z IF IT CAN SURVIVE THE
TREK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AND SO HAS BEEN
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE, SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
FINALLY DEVELOP AROUND CMX AND SAW BY 11Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY COULD BE
ON THE STRONGER SIDE, WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY AT CMX, POTENTIALLY DROPPING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. THIS LIFTS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WINDS <15-20 KTS DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK. THE
MAIN MARINE HAZARDS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL (>50 KTS AND >1" IN DIAMETER). A
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, HOWEVER, THE WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE MAY
BE IN THE GREATEST RISK. A SECONDARY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP TOMORROW (MONDAY), BUT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AGAIN ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, TRANSIENT MARINE FOG IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162-243-244-251-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW
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