317
FXUS63 KMQT 191827
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
227 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF THE INTERIOR UP WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 0.1" OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BLOSSOMING DIURNAL CU
ACROSS THE UP UNDERNEATH INCREASING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. A LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAY BE SHAPING UP AS LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE RHS
FALLING BETWEEN 35-50% AND WIND GUSTING BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. WITH
CONTINUED MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, RHS MAY CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S, MORESO ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL UP. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AND RHS RECOVER,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEPART. ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE PRESENTS
ITSELF TONIGHT REGARDING LOW TEMPS. UNDER CLEARING SKIES, SAVE FOR
MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUD ADVECTION IN THE WESTERN UP, RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY ALLOW PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S. NOT PLANNING ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING WIDESPREAD 32-35 DEGREES, BUT IF YOU'RE CONCERNED ABOUT
PROTECTING YOUR PLANTS MAY ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION TONIGHT.
THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA. SHOWERS REACH THE
WESTERN UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL UP BY
THE EVENING, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STOUT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THINKING
THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF RAIN MAY BE SLOWED SOME. INITIALLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WEST HALF, BUT UNFAVORABLE
TIMING FOR DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK KINEMATICS GIVES LOW
CONFIDENCE ON MUCH MORE THAN A RUMBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING, CAM
ENSEMBLES ONLY POINT TOWARDS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN A DIME, SO DO NOT BE EXPECTING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FOR YOUR
GARDENS. ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN A DIME AND QUARTER ARE MORE LIKELY
IN THE WESTERN HALF WHERE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT, MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL UP.
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE MARINE HAZARDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SHARP SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION (850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 3-6C
SUNDAY) WILL CREATE NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 KTS WITH A 40% CHANCE OF
GALES TO 35 KTS.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE FIRST HALF
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LAKE BREEZE DOMINATED
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABILITY FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 20%, HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - LIGHT WINDS 15 KTS OR BELOW REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20 KTS IN THE EASTERN LAKE
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW 15 KTS FRIDAY. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARDS RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING
MODEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE RESULTING
IN GUSTY N TO NW WINDS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KTS BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) FOR A FEW GALES TO 35 KTS MAINLY BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND
WHITEFISH POINT.
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN - BREEZY
SOUTHERLIES UPWARDS OF 15-20 KTS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 1-3 FT (GREATEST IN THE OPEN WATERS CLOSER TO
LAKE MICHIGAN). A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN WINDS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, TWO SYSTEMS THEN DIVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-
25 KTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW
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