926
FXUS63 KMQT 200803
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF THE INTERIOR UP WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S EARLY THIS MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 0.1" OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. AND, THE INTERIOR WEST COULD STILL DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. ALSO, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
APPROACHING ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD RESULT IN
SOME QUICK VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
OTHEWISE, EXPECT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA. SHOWERS REACH THE WESTERN UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL UP LATE THIS EVENING. WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE RAIN. INITIALLY CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WEST HALF, BUT UNFAVORABLE TIMING FOR
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK KINEMATICS GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MUCH MORE THAN A RUMBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING, CAM ENSEMBLES ONLY
POINT TOWARDS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A DIME,
SO DO NOT BE EXPECTING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FOR YOUR GARDENS.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN A DIME AND QUARTER ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THE WESTERN HALF WHERE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT, MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL UP.
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE MARINE HAZARDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SHARP SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION (850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 3-6C
SUNDAY) WILL CREATE NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 KTS WITH A 40% CHANCE OF
GALES TO 35 KTS.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE FIRST HALF
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RAINFALL COMES IN TODAY, SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD BE
SEEN OVER IWD AND CMX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VIA MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR LOWERED CIGS (~20 TO 30% CHANCE EACH HOUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS). RAINFALL CHANCES DON'T APPEAR TO APPROACH SAW UNTIL
NEARLY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WHILE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ON THE WIND DIRECTION FOR SAW THIS AFTERNOON; SHOULD THE LAKE MI
LAKE BREEZE NOT WIN-OUT, EXPECT TO SEE MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAN
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON VIA THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE SOUTH BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOULD
THE LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WIN-OUT, EXPECT TO SEE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE OVER SAW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FINALLY, WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MARGINAL LLWS TO BE
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO TERMINALS FOR MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO
TONIGHT, GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES AND MARGINAL NATURE, DECIDED TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTIONS OF IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - LIGHT WINDS 15 KTS OR BELOW REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20 KTS IN THE EASTERN LAKE
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW 15 KTS FRIDAY. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARDS RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING
MODEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE RESULTING
IN GUSTY N TO NW WINDS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KTS BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) FOR A FEW GALES TO 35 KTS MAINLY BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND
WHITEFISH POINT.
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN - BREEZY
SOUTHERLIES UPWARDS OF 15-20 KTS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 1-3 FT (GREATEST IN THE OPEN WATERS CLOSER TO
LAKE MICHIGAN). A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN WINDS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, TWO SYSTEMS THEN DIVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-
25 KTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/TDUD
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW
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