787
FXUS63 KMQT 201815
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
215 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF THE INTERIOR UP WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S EARLY THIS MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 0.1" OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. AND, THE INTERIOR WEST COULD STILL DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. ALSO, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
APPROACHING ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD RESULT IN
SOME QUICK VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA. SHOWERS REACH THE
WESTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL UP LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE RAIN. INITIALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WEST HALF, BUT
UNFAVORABLE TIMING FOR DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK KINEMATICS
GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE ON MUCH MORE THAN A RUMBLE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING, CAM ENSEMBLES ONLY POINT TOWARDS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A DIME, SO DO NOT BE EXPECTING MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL FOR YOUR GARDENS. ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN A DIME AND
QUARTER ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN HALF WHERE BETTER
SATURATION OCCURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT, MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL UP.
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE MARINE HAZARDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SHARP SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION (850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 3-6C
SUNDAY) WILL CREATE NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 KTS WITH A 40% CHANCE OF
GALES TO 35 KTS.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE FIRST HALF
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, BUT
THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO -SHRA AND
POTENTIALLY (20-40% CHANCE) A FEW -TSRA (HIGHEST CHANCE AT IWD).
PRECIP ARRIVES AT IWD AND CMX FIRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. -SHRA ARRIVES AT SAW TONIGHT,
HOLDING ON AND OFF INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS LOWER TO IFR AT IWD AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT
CMX (30-50% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS TO THAT ARE WHERE LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES
YIELD AN EAST WIND AT CMX IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - LIGHT WINDS 15 KTS OR BELOW REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20 KTS IN THE EASTERN LAKE
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW 15 KTS FRIDAY. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARDS RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING
MODEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE RESULTING
IN GUSTY N TO NW WINDS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KTS BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) FOR A FEW GALES TO 35 KTS MAINLY BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND
WHITEFISH POINT.
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN - BREEZY
SOUTHERLIES UPWARDS OF 15-20 KTS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 1-3 FT (GREATEST IN THE OPEN WATERS CLOSER TO
LAKE MICHIGAN). A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN WINDS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, TWO SYSTEMS THEN DIVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-
25 KTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/TDUD
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page