551
FXUS63 KMQT 211757
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL UP THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 0.1" OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UP TOMORROW,
BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
TODAY, THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO OUR WEST TRACKS THROUGH THE UP
(PERHAPS OPENING UP INTO A SURFACE TROUGH). THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UP BY MID-MORNING. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
REDEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH VERY LIMITED SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BELOW 1000J/KG, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT, AGAIN WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES
SHOW AS MUCH AS A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHER EMBEDDED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF
A QUARTER-INCH IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. TODAY IS LOOKING OTHERWISE
BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH OVER THE EASTERN UP. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF IT.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR TOMORROW AS A
MIDLEVEL LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO, SENDING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES AND A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT SAID, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE MARINE HAZARDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW/SUNDAY. MODEST PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION (850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 3-6C SUNDAY) WILL CREATE NORTHERLY
GUSTS 20-30 KTS WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN IS BRINGING
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE AREA. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE ARE THE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT SAW, WHICH ARE
PRESENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN UP. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THEM ACROSS SAW BETWEEN 20-00Z, SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR -TSRA
AT SAW FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS FALL SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SAW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT CMX AND SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - ESE WIND GUSTS PICK UP TO AROUND 20KTS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT, THEN GUSTS FALL BACK BELOW
20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A PASSING COLD FRONT CAUSES WINDS TO
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARDS RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING MODEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE RESULTING IN GUSTY N TO NW WINDS UPWARDS OF
20-30 KTS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30-50%) FOR A FEW GALES TO 35 KTS
MAINLY BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND WHITEFISH POINT. WINDS FALL BACK BELOW
20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND STAY MAINLY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN - SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING, BUT BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 1-3 FT
(GREATEST IN THE OPEN WATERS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN). A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN WINDS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT,
HOWEVER, TWO SYSTEMS THEN DIVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY FALL BACK BELOW 20KTS FOR MONDAY BEFORE
POTENTIALLY INCREASING AGAIN INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC/TDUD
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LC
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