153
FXUS63 KMQT 220534
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TOMORROW WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK SFC LOW HAS MADE IT OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR, OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC OBS PLACE THE COLD FRONT JUST
PAST THE FAR WESTERN UP WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AHEAD
OF IT. TDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SUPPORT SBCAPE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO BELOW 25
KTS, SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC HAS SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING GLACIATION AND GLM/GROUND NETWORKS
INDICATING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS JUST STARTING. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
DECREASES AND LINGERING CONVECTION FALLS APART. PWATS OF ~1.3 INCHES
INDICATE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST CENTRAL UP), BUT MOST LIKELY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) WITH A SHORTWAVE AND LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT. LOWS SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
60S, COLDEST INTERIOR WEST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DROP SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, CAMS ARE EVEN LESS IMPRESSED
WITH THIS ROUND. OUTSIDE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
REACH UP TO 0.25 INCHES, ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW 0.1 INCHES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND, BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CAA LOWERS 850 MB
TEMPS TO BETWEEN 3-6C, YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOME INTERIOR SPOTS LIKELY WILL DIP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP
TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST
EAST...PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST KEEPS WEATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY, LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY AS WELL BEFORE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS BRINGS BACK SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT SAW.
MENTIONED FOG WITH 4SM VSBY BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF
VSBY LESS 1SM (40% CHANCE). ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT, BRINGING GUSTS TO
20-25KT AT SAW AND CMX IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL UP
TODAY BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS (LESS THAN 20%).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 20-30 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON, STRONGEST NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SHORES. GUSTS APPROACH
20 KTS OVER THE WEST. AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT, CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KTS; THE STRONGER WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER THE EAST PERSIST. THIS
HOLDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY SIMMER DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BUILDS SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF 3-7
FT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES FOR
GALES TO 35 KTS ARE ONLY BETWEEN 15-25%, HIGHEST SOUTH OF STANNARD
ROCK AND ALONG THE MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY SHORES. WINDS OTHERWISE
REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS
BACK WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN - SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON DROP OFF
INTO THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLDER
AIRMASS DESCENDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FALL BACK BELOW 20 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT, REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...77
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