891
FXUS63 KMQT 220811
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
RADAR MOSAIC HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH JUST AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT WEAK CONVECTION NOW MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WI/MI BORDER. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY,
HOWEVER, DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN OR
THUNDER. LATER TODAY, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, CAMS ARE EVEN LESS IMPRESSED WITH THIS ROUND.
OUTSIDE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD REACH UP TO 0.25
INCHES, ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW 0.1 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. CURRENTLY, GROUND-BASED OBS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE REPORTING LOW 50S OVER MUCH THE INTERIOR WEST WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1/4 MILE AT BOTH SAWYER AND IRON
MOUNTAIN. BY DAYBREAK, THESE AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S. ELSEWHERE, THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UP AND KEWEENAW ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND, BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CAA LOWERS 850 MB
TEMPS TO BETWEEN 3-6C, YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOME INTERIOR SPOTS LIKELY WILL DIP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP
TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST
EAST...PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST KEEPS WEATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY, LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY AS WELL BEFORE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS BRINGS BACK SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT SAW.
MENTIONED FOG WITH 4SM VSBY BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF
VSBY LESS 1SM (40% CHANCE). ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT, BRINGING GUSTS TO
20-25KT AT SAW AND CMX IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL UP
TODAY BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS (LESS THAN 20%).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 20-30 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON, STRONGEST NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SHORES. GUSTS APPROACH
20 KTS OVER THE WEST. AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT, CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KTS; THE STRONGER WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER THE EAST PERSIST. THIS
HOLDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY SIMMER DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BUILDS SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF 3-7
FT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES FOR
GALES TO 35 KTS ARE ONLY BETWEEN 15-25%, HIGHEST SOUTH OF STANNARD
ROCK AND ALONG THE MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY SHORES. WINDS OTHERWISE
REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS
BACK WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN - SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON DROP OFF
INTO THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLDER
AIRMASS DESCENDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FALL BACK BELOW 20 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT, REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77/TDUD
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...77
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