265
FXUS63 KMQT 231808
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
208 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ARE
CREATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS ALONG
THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE COUNTY EASTWARD TODAY; A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
- SPOTTY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EAST HALF TODAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM CANADA BRINGING DELTA-TS INTO THE MID-
TEENS CELSIUS TODAY, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS STOUT HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. WHILE THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN
FROM CANADA TODAY WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GET UP INTO AT LEAST THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE SOUTH CENTRAL POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO AROUND 70F.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK TO CREATE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH,
SHORT-PERIOD WAVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS,
EXPECT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORES FROM
MARQUETTE COUNTY EASTWARD TODAY; STAY SAFE AND OUT OF THE WATER
TODAY AS THE SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING!
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST HALF BY THIS EVENING,
WITH ANTECEDENT COOLER AIR STILL OVERHEAD AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT,
EXPECT LOW TONIGHT TO POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S TO POTENTIALLY
30S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS; FOR SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS, CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FROST AS WE SEE ONE OF OUR FIRST TASTES OF
FALL THIS YEAR.
EXPECT A RETURN TO GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE LOW IS IN STORE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THUS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BEFORE MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN OVER THE U.P. ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK; ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE LOW MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE MAIN LOW FOR THE
MID-WEEK BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THREE SITES FOR THE
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT IWD PRIOR
TO DAWN AND MVFR CEILINGS AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TO LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AT KIWD, LAMP LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES RUN AROUND 15% FOR THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD;
GIVEN VERY LOW WINDS AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE, INCLUDED BR IN TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS SITE. AT KCMX, GUSTY NORTHERLIES LAY DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT. AT KSAW, EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS ARE GENERATED FROM ONSHORE NORTHERLY
FLOW; THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR - N TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER THE
LAKE TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS COULD BE SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE
SHORELINE FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS, MICHIGAN (NBM SHOWS UP TO
60% CHANCE). AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE NW (20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF). THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH A CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FOR THE
MID-WEEK, SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE S AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER
AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
WINDS WEAKEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ROLLS INTO THE REGION VIA ROTATING AROUND THE CLIPPER. AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURN TO THE
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM
THE NW AGAIN BY THURSDAY; AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE NBM HAS AROUND A 50%
CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES BETWEEN STANNARD ROCK AND THE MARQUETTE
COUNTY SHORELINE DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING RETURNING BY FRIDAY, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS
TO RETURN TO THE LAKE BY THEN.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MI - N TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS CONTINUE TODAY VIA COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE IT DOES TAKE AWHILE,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN LATE
ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH'S CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
DON'T EXPECT THE CALMER WATERS TO LAST ALL THAT LONG AS A CLIPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE MID-WEEK. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT S
WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. IN ADDITION, RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME CALMER SEAS COULD BE SEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE NW AGAIN AS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE SEEN ONCE MORE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS WEEK BRINGS WINDS BACK DOWN TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...RE
MARINE...TAP
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