981
FXUS63 KMQT 160516
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
116 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS >45 MPH.
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WESTERLY GUSTS 40-45 KTS CONTINUE WITH A
FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE (UP TO 50% CHANCE)
NEAR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
- QUIETER WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
NEXT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE REVEALS THE DRY SLOT OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE UP AND LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SURFACE, STRONG PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN
LAKE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS, AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO STRONG WINDS ALOFT, HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CREATE SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-35 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW WITH 45-55 MPH GUSTS MEASURED AT
CMX. A WINDY ADVISORY FOR N HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPS FALL
INTO THE 40S WITH LOW 50S LIKELY NEAR THE LAKESHORES AND UPPER 30S
OR THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL.
HEADED INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE UNDER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTION MAY TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT BEST SHOT AT MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ASCENT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. AT THIS
TIME, MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS
SOUTH ACROSS WI AND THEIR ENSEMBLES COUNTERPARTS / THE NBM POINT
TOWARDS POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL RAIN (50% CHANCE FOR >0.5") ACROSS
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, LESS THAN 10KT. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, SCATTERED, FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW AND
INCREASED MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTY
WESTERLIES 35-45 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE, PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN LAKE AROUND THE KEWEENAW. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
AS INCREASING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS TO SLACKEN THE AREA
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE WILL RIDE THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT (8 PM EDT LOCAL). WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BELOW 15 KTS TONIGHT
AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
MAY BRING WINDS TO 25 KTS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: BREEZY SW WINDS
15-25 KTS TURN WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DIMINISHING BELOW 15 KTS. LIGHT WINDS REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LOCAL INCREASES TO THE WINDS ABOVE 15 KTS AT TIMES.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page