527
FNUS73 KMQT 111220
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR 4 SOUTH WAKEFIELD POTENTIAL WILDFIRE...NWS MQT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
820 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS RHS
BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO 30% THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH
THIS MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER,
WITH THE LLJ ALREADY LEAVING THE AREA, EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, EVEN AS STRONG MIXING WILL TRY TO PROMOTE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONG
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UP
TO SEVERAL THOUSAND FT THOUGH, ALLOWING FOR GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN LATE AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT'S EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL
BRING A FULL RH RECOVERY TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
EXPECT TO SEE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AT THE VERY LEAST DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE HIGHS COULD STILL BE INTO THE 70S ON
MONDAY, CLOUDY SKIES AND INCOMING COOL LAKE-INFLUENCED AIR WILL HELP
TO LIMIT FIRE SPREAD.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........63 AT FORECAST START...MAX 82.
RH..................63 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 35 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 14 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE
700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3200 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (111) AT FORECAST START. MAX...GOOD
(505.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......24.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1 1 1 2 13 25 11 28 31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............63 66 69 74 77 79 81 81 81
DEWPOINT........50 52 52 52 52 52 51 51 51
RH..............63 60 54 46 42 39 35 36 36
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
33 FT WIND SPD..14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10
WIND GUST.......20 20 20 18 18 18 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2
VINDX KT-FT/100.11 28 31 33 40 46 49 50 51
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............53.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 3 AM.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-900 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (27.0-375.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......22 DECREASING TO 1.6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........55 58 50 59 59 64 67 67 85 87 96 93
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............79 76 71 68 65 65 64 63 62 61 59 58
DEWPOINT........52 53 54 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54
RH..............39 45 56 63 67 68 71 73 76 79 84 87
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SE SE SE E E E E E E
33 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SE SE SE E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2
WIND GUST.......12 12 12 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9
VINDX KT-FT/100.38 7 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 6
CEILING (KFT)...24 23 23 24 23 23 22 18 15 8.6 6.8 1.6
COLUMBUS DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...7 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............53.
33-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST UP TO 6 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2200 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (47.0-199.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......1.2 DECREASING TO 0.9 EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN DECREASING TO 0.5 EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 0.7 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 0.9 INCREASING TO 1.1 EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92 94 94 86 77 80 83 84 84 91 85 80
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 56 56 57 60 63 66 67 68 70 68 67
DEWPOINT........54 54 53 54 55 55 55 54 54 54 53 52
RH..............89 93 90 91 83 77 67 64 60 57 59 60
33 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
33 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.6
VINDX KT-FT/100.5 7 8 7 10 12 13 17 16 20 19 16
CEILING (KFT)...1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1
FORECASTER...TAP
REQUESTED BY...TAYLOR PRISLOVSKY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2623570.0/MQT
.DELDT 10/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LISA.GOWE@USDA.GOV,ZBRENTAR@GOGEBIC.GOV,MURPHYK1@MICHIGAN.GOV,KYLE.GOLL@USDA.GOV,HDEROSSO@GOGEBIC.GOV
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