250
FNUS73 KMQT 111340
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAIG LAKE FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
940 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1511 EDT ON OCTOBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WHILE ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 80, EXPECT THE MINRHS TO NOT BE AS DRY AND THE LLJ OVER THE
AREA TO WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY, LEADING TO THE WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC
TO SLOWLY DWINDLE DOWN EVEN AS MIXING IMPROVES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TODAY (ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS),
WITH LOWERING PRESSURE INCOMING FROM CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO BRING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE SFC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE, EXPECT THE MOST DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
THIS EVENING, GIVEN THE INCOMING MOISTENING AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS. ONE NOTE ON THE WIND DIRECTIONS: AS THEY WEAKEN TODAY,
EXPECT THEM TO CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING/TODAY
TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIRMASS COMES IN
FROM THE NORTH.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........78 AT FORECAST START...MAX 78.
RH..................39 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 38 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE
2800-2900 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (581) AT FORECAST START. MAX...GOOD
(581.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......24.
TIME (EDT) 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........7 11
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0
TEMP............78 78
DEWPOINT........51 51
RH..............38 39
33 FT WIND......SW 12 SW 12
20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 10
WIND GUST.......18 18
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2900
VINDX KT-FT/100.58 55
CEILING (KFT)...24 25
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............53.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH DECREASING TO
AROUND 4 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (23.0-167.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......24 DECREASING TO 0.8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........17 48 66 75 83 84
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............77 67 62 60 58 54
DEWPOINT........52 55 53 52 52 52
RH..............43 66 73 77 82 92
33 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 8 SW 5 N 3 N 3 NE 3
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 4 N 2 N 2 NE 2
WIND GUST.......12 12 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 500 400 400 500 500
VINDX KT-FT/100.17 4 3 3 3 3
CEILING (KFT)...24 24 24 20 16 6.7
COLUMBUS DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67.
RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51 INCREASING TO 54 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1700 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (34.0-166.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.6 DECREASING TO 0.5 EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN DECREASING TO 0.3 EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 0.4 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........84 92 80 83 84 87
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 0 10
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 0 10
TEMP............52 51 57 62 64 64
DEWPOINT........51 50 55 56 55 54
RH..............96 97 93 80 73 71
33 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 5 NE 7 NE 7 NE 7 NE 8
20 FT WIND......NE 4 NE 4 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6
WIND GUST.......11 11 13 12 12 13
MIX HGT (FT)....500 600 1100 1200 1500 1500
VINDX KT-FT/100.3 6 12 13 17 14
CEILING (KFT)...0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
FORECASTER...TAP
REQUESTED BY...DUTY OFFICER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2623502.1/MQT
.DELDT 10/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MURPHYK1@MICHIGAN.GOV
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