902
FNUS73 KMQT 120942
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAIG LAKE FIRE...MIDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON OCTOBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
EXPECT MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THE MIDWEEK
AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HANGS AROUND AND LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE CHANCES FOR OVER
A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENING ARE
AROUND 80%, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE IN LIMITING
FIRE SPREAD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY EVENTUALLY TURNS
NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING AND CAA
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. GIVEN ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS, THE
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD ACT TO AID IN FIRE SUPPRESSION
AT CRAIG LAKE.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...7 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT FORECAST START...MAX 59.
RH..................98 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 81 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE
700-1200 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (72) AT FORECAST START. MAX...POOR
(129.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......3.6 DECREASING TO 0.7 EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN DECREASING TO 0.3 EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 0.4 LATE IN THE MORNING
DECREASING TO 0.3 INCREASING TO 0.4 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........88 85 87 88 83 83 84 83 83 86
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............49 50 53 54 56 56 57 58 57 56
DEWPOINT........49 49 52 53 53 53 52 52 51 51
RH..............98 99 98 98 91 88 83 81 82 83
33 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
33 FT WIND SPD..6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......12 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
VINDX KT-FT/100.7 9 10 12 13 13 13 11 10 10
CEILING (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...27 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 40.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............48 DECREASING TO 44 AFTER 3 AM.
33-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1100 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (30.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.41 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.3 INCREASING TO 0.4 LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN
DECREASING TO 0.3 OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 0.2
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 0.3.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........88 92 90 91 91 94 87 88 92 88 85 81
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 30 70 100 70 90 90 90 80 50
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 10
TEMP............55 52 50 48 47 47 47 47 47 47 45 44
DEWPOINT........50 50 49 47 46 46 46 47 46 46 45 44
RH..............84 91 96 97 97 97 98 98 98 99 99 100
33 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E NE NE NE
33 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
VINDX KT-FT/100.9 10 8 9 9 11 11 5 4 4 4 3
CEILING (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54.
RH..................MIN 86 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............43 INCREASING TO 49 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1800 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (40.0-249.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.10 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.3 DECREASING TO 0.2 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........84 90 90 85 84 79 82 81 84 88 89 85
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............44 42 43 44 48 50 51 52 52 53 53 52
DEWPOINT........44 42 43 44 48 50 51 51 50 50 49 49
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 98 97 91 88 86 87
33 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N NW NW NW
33 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8
VINDX KT-FT/100.4 5 8 14 15 16 21 20 22 16 22 25
CEILING (KFT)...0.3 0.2 0.2
FORECASTER...TAP
REQUESTED BY...JEFF VASHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2623594.0/MQT
.DELDT 10/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VASHERJ@MICHIGAN.GOV
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