287
FNUS73 KMQT 121214
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
814 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY INTO THE MIDWEEK, AND COOLER, MORE MOIST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BLACK RIVER WILDFIRE TODAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY SOUTHWARDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT MINRHS TO BE LIMITED TO THE 50 PERCENTS AT THE VERY WORST BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS LIFTING AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE RETURNING THIS EVENING.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, A WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS
THE REFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A 60 TO 70% CHANCE OF OVER HALF AN INCH OF
LIQUID FALLING BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE SEEN TONIGHT, THE LIGHTNING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT FREQUENT GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT RELEGATED TO ONLY THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. BEHIND THE RAINFALL TONIGHT, WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT EVEN MORE MOIST RHS AT THE SFC TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS AND THE RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE COULD KEEP MINRHS ABOVE
70%.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...8 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT FORECAST START...MAX 66.
RH..................96 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 62 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE
1100-1300 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (82) AT FORECAST START. MAX...FAIR
(140.0).
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........88 85 83 73 72 74 74 60 74
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
TEMP............54 55 58 61 62 63 65 64 63
RH..............96 93 83 73 69 65 62 64 64
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE E E E NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
WIND GUST.......11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
VINDX KT-FT/100.8 11 11 13 14 13 12 12 12
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...49 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1300 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (45.0-158.0).
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AFTER 3 AM.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........80 83 82 88 85 91 84 82 91 84 89 92
WEATHER COV..... SCH LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 60 80 90 90 90 90 70 50 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 50 50 50 30 30 30 10 10 10 0
TEMP............62 59 54 52 51 51 50 49 49 48 47 46
RH..............66 71 87 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 99 99
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE E E E NE NE NE N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4
WIND GUST.......14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.8
VINDX KT-FT/100.13 12 13 16 16 8 9 5 5 5 9 7
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 75 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1900 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (70.0-229.0).
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........94 94 95 89 79 79 83 79 81 91 90 85
WEATHER COV.....SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............45 43 44 45 47 50 52 53 54 54 54 54
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 97 85 81 77 75 76 77
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WIND GUST.......10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
VINDX KT-FT/100.10 7 9 12 12 11 14 18 19 17 19 23
FORECASTER...TAP
REQUESTED BY...MIDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2623609.0/MQT
.DELDT 10/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SM.FS.MIDC@USDA.GOV
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