173
FNUS73 KMQT 121842
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAIG LAKE FIRE...MICHIGAN DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
242 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1511 EDT ON OCTOBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY UPSLOPE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MOIST, CLOUDY, AND
FOGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE CRAIG LAKE ARE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE UP. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HIGHER (HURRAY!) WITH THIS MORNING'S ENSEMBLES
NOW SHOWERING FAVORABLE PROBABILITY (75 TO 100% CHANCE) FOR TOTAL
QPF GREATER THAN 0.5" AND 50-75% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS >0.75". LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT NOT RULED
OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S. FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL AGAIN CREATE
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE BEFORE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RH BETWEEN 80-100% IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT FORECAST START...MAX 58.
RH..................86 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 82 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE 1300
FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (140) AT FORECAST START. MAX...FAIR
(140.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.4.
TIME (EDT) 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........84 81
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10
TEMP............56 54
DEWPOINT........52 50
RH..............86 87
33 FT WIND......NE 8 NE 8
20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 6
WIND GUST.......13 13
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1300
VINDX KT-FT/100.14 14
CEILING (KFT)...0.4 0.4
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...33 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 40.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............48 DECREASING TO 45 AFTER 3 AM.
33-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1200 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (29.0-133.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.66 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.3 INCREASING TO 0.4 AFTER 3 AM, THEN
DECREASING TO 0.3 AFTER 3 AM.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........85 90 93 93 91 84
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG RN/FG RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 80 80 80 70
CHC OF THDR (%).10 20 20 30 20 20
TEMP............52 48 46 46 47 45
DEWPOINT........50 48 46 46 47 45
RH..............92 99 99 99 100 100
33 FT WIND......NE 8 NE 8 E 8 E 7 E 7 E 5
20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 6 E 6 E 6 E 6 E 4
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 14 14 11
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 700 800 700 700 500
VINDX KT-FT/100.13 8 9 7 6 4
CEILING (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN
THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54.
RH..................MIN 88 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............43 INCREASING TO 50 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1700 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (32.0-230.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.13 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.3 INCREASING TO 0.6.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........93 91 86 77 82 91
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RN/FG RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 20 20 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 44 50 52 53 53
DEWPOINT........42 44 50 51 50 49
RH..............100 100 100 99 90 88
33 FT WIND......N 5 N 5 N 6 N 6 N 6 NW 7
20 FT WIND......N 4 N 4 N 5 N 5 N 5 NW 6
WIND GUST.......11 11 12 11 11 12
MIX HGT (FT)....500 700 900 1400 1500 1700
VINDX KT-FT/100.4 5 9 15 16 22
CEILING (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
FORECASTER...BW
REQUESTED BY...DUTY OFFICER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2623502.2/MQT
.DELDT 10/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MURPHYK1@MICHIGAN.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page