725
FXUS63 KMQT 131916
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE (50-75% CHANCE), CREATING
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 15-20 FT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTION SKIRTING THROUGH THE
REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH IS KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERHEAD WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PRESENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO PEAK INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP WHILE
AREAS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A FEW
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS COOL BETWEEN 1-3C. OTHERWISE, DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK UNDER A PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS TOMORROW LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY THOUGH SOME CLEARING AND DRY SURFACE AIR WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES DRIVEN BY TWO PHASING
TROUGHS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A ~1009 MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLACED IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. AMPLE NORTHWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LEAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING INTO
THE UP THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND LATEST
NBM SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 50-80% CHANCE FOR QPF >0.25". EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW FEATURE IS SLATED TO
WORK NORTHEAST ATOP THE LOWER LAKES, PLACING UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FLANK. STRONG MID TO LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RAPID
PRESSURE RISES (UPWARDS OF 1.5-2MB/HR) WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHERLY
WIND SPEEDS REACHING 25-35 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE ADJACENT LAKESHORES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL AS ENSEMBLES (NBM AND ENS) HAVE
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-70% CHANCE) OF GUSTS >50 KTS
WHEREAS MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL PEAK MIXING LARGELY NEAR 45 KTS. LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL 0.1-0.25" OF PRECIP ONCE SYSTEM RAIN CLEAR THE AREA.
WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX INTO AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR HIGHLANDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURE WARM INTO
THE 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS WINDS SETTLE
LATE FRIDAY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
REACHING THE MID TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE INTERIOR
WHILE THE LAKESHORES MAY REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
FALL. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM UP / FIRE WEATHER
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY ABOUT 03Z AT ALL SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF A
BRIEF RETURN TO IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: PERIODS OF BREEZY 15-25 KT NW GUSTS HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WORKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND RAPID
PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITH
GUSTS REACHING 45-55 KTS IN THE CENTRAL LAKE FRIDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD BETWEEN 15-20 FEET, HIGHEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORES. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE LAKE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: BREEZY NW WINDS
NEAR 15-20 KTS REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WHIPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAY AND LAKE LATE THURS-EARLY FRI.
NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 35-40 KTS FRIDAY WITH WAVES
BUILDING BETWEEN 5-8 FT. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE
INTO SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...BW
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