933
FXUS63 KMQT 141819
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
219 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN AND GUSTY N TO NW WINDS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE (25-50% CHANCE), CREATING
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 15-20 FT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERHEAD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOCALIZED RIDGING WORKS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW BROKEN STREAMS OF LAKE ENHANCED /
CONVERGENT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY AND MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPS COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S TONIGHT. BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
QUIET WEATHER AT BAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS BELOW.
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES DRIVEN BY TWO PHASING
TROUGHS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A ~1009 MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLACED IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. AMPLE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LEAD NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
LIFTING INTO THE UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WELCOMED RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, NOW SUGGESTING A 75-90% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.5"
ANYWHERE IN THE UP. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON THE
SURFACE LOW FEATURE DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING NORTHEAST ATOP THE LOWER
LAKES, PLACING UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND STOUT PRESSURE RISES (UPWARDS OF 1-2MB/HR) WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS REACHING 25-35 KTS GUSTING 45-50
KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ADJACENT LAKESHORES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL AS ENSEMBLES
(NBM AND ENS) HAVE DECREASED THE PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN
THE CENTRAL LAKE (20-50% CHANCE) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DON'T HIGHLIGHT
MIXING INTO ANY 50 KTS GUST LAYERS. AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL BETWEEN
-5 TO -7C, LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.5" OF PRECIP OR THE NORTH WIND
SNOWBELTS AND UPSLOPING LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN ONCE SYSTEM RAIN CLEARS THE AREA. WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO
SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX INTO AREAS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS EARLY
FRIDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS FALL ~1000 FT AGL, THOUGH THE WINDOW FOR
ANY QUICK SHOW OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS SHORT AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR
MIXING INTO THE THE DGZ AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER. AS WINDS SETTLE LATE
FRIDAY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
REACHING THE MID TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE INTERIOR
WHILE SOME LAKESHORES MAY REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
FALL. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM UP / FIRE WEATHER
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND'S FIRE WEATHER
SETUP, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 50-75% CHANCE FOR S TO SW WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 MPH IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
UP AND MINIMUM RHS FALLING TO NEAR 30% IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL. LUCKILY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLATED TO PEAK INTO THE 60S.
FIRE PARTNERS AND ADJACENT PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS CONTAINMENT AND MOP UP EFFORTS FOR ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY
STILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN, YIELDING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS AT UP TERMINALS.
HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL UP, WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT DROPS TO IFR AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KIWD AND KCMX THROUGH 20-
21Z. OTHERWISE, PROGRESSIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD YIELD INCREASING CIGS TO VFR AT ALL SITES 21-00Z
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES KEEP A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS
AROUND KSAW THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THU, SPREADING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE TERMINALS 12-15Z
THU. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KIWD AND KCMX 16-18Z THU, WITH RAIN LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF AT KSAW UNTIL AFTER THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: PERIODS OF BREEZY 15-25 KT NW GUSTS PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
BRIEFLY LAY DOWN BELOW 15KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WORKS THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND RAPID
PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITH
GUSTS REACHING 40-50 KTS IN THE CENTRAL LAKE FRIDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD BETWEEN 15-20 FEET, HIGHEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORES. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE LAKE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: BREEZY NW WINDS
NEAR 15-20 KTS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING BELOW 15KTS
LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WHIPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAY AND LAKE LATE THURS-
EARLY FRI. NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 35-40 KTS FRIDAY
WITH WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 5-8 FT. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW
GALE FORCE INTO SATURDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL N LAKE
MICHIGAN MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW/LC
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