100
FXUS63 KMQT 150509
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN AND GUSTY N TO NW WINDS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE (25-50% CHANCE), CREATING
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 15-20 FT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERHEAD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOCALIZED RIDGING WORKS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW BROKEN STREAMS OF LAKE ENHANCED /
CONVERGENT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY AND MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPS COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S TONIGHT. BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
QUIET WEATHER AT BAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS BELOW.
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES DRIVEN BY TWO PHASING
TROUGHS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A ~1009 MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLACED IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. AMPLE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LEAD NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
LIFTING INTO THE UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WELCOMED RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, NOW SUGGESTING A 75-90% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.5"
ANYWHERE IN THE UP. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON THE
SURFACE LOW FEATURE DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING NORTHEAST ATOP THE LOWER
LAKES, PLACING UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND STOUT PRESSURE RISES (UPWARDS OF 1-2MB/HR) WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS REACHING 25-35 KTS GUSTING 45-50
KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ADJACENT LAKESHORES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL AS ENSEMBLES
(NBM AND ENS) HAVE DECREASED THE PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN
THE CENTRAL LAKE (20-50% CHANCE) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DON'T HIGHLIGHT
MIXING INTO ANY 50 KTS GUST LAYERS. AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL BETWEEN
-5 TO -7C, LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.5" OF PRECIP OR THE NORTH WIND
SNOWBELTS AND UPSLOPING LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN ONCE SYSTEM RAIN CLEARS THE AREA. WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO
SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX INTO AREAS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS EARLY
FRIDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS FALL ~1000 FT AGL, THOUGH THE WINDOW FOR
ANY QUICK SHOW OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS SHORT AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR
MIXING INTO THE THE DGZ AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER. AS WINDS SETTLE LATE
FRIDAY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
REACHING THE MID TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE INTERIOR
WHILE SOME LAKESHORES MAY REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
FALL. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM UP / FIRE WEATHER
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND'S FIRE WEATHER
SETUP, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 50-75% CHANCE FOR S TO SW WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 MPH IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
UP AND MINIMUM RHS FALLING TO NEAR 30% IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL. LUCKILY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLATED TO PEAK INTO THE 60S.
FIRE PARTNERS AND ADJACENT PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS CONTAINMENT AND MOP UP EFFORTS FOR ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY
STILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS PERSIST THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY CALM
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. DETERIORATION DOWN TO
IFR IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT RAIN TO ARRIVE AT IWD AROUND 16Z, FOLLOWED BY
CMX AT 19Z, AND SAW AT AROUND 21Z. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF LIFR CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AT IWD/CMX, MENTION WAS ONLY ADDED TO SAW FOR NOW AS EXACT
TIMING AND DURATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE WESTERN UP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: PERIODS OF BREEZY 15-25 KT NW GUSTS PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
BRIEFLY LAY DOWN BELOW 15KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WORKS THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND RAPID
PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITH
GUSTS REACHING 40-50 KTS IN THE CENTRAL LAKE FRIDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD BETWEEN 15-20 FEET, HIGHEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORES. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE LAKE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: BREEZY NW WINDS
NEAR 15-20 KTS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING BELOW 15KTS
LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WHIPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAY AND LAKE LATE THURS-
EARLY FRI. NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 35-40 KTS FRIDAY
WITH WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 5-8 FT. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW
GALE FORCE INTO SATURDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL N LAKE
MICHIGAN MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW/LC
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