581
FXUS63 KMQT 151721
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY N TO NW WINDS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE (25-50% CHANCE), CREATING SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 15-20 FT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE, AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER
THE ROCKIES. TO THE EAST, THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTED RIGHT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, THIS ALL TRANSLATES TO SURFACE
LOWS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND OKLAHOMA, AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME, WE REMAIN UNDER A
BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS, THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA AMID SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
MOST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S AND ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE CANADIAN AND ROCKIES FEATURES TO
PHASE NEAR NE/SD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING TO
1007-1009MB NEAR CHICAGO BY 00Z FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
THIS KICKS OFF A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THIS INITIAL BATCH DROPPING WIDESPREAD
TOTALS AROUND 0.50-0.75" BY 06Z. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY FALLING
TO AROUND -5 TO -7C INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, EXPECT A TRANSITION
OVER TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN FROM 06Z ONWARDS, WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY BECOMING ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERLY WIND BELTS FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.75" ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE UPSLOPING AREAS OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL UP AND THE PORCUPINES. WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME WET
SNOW MIX INTO AREAS OF THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS EARLY AND THEN LATE
FRIDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS FALL TO ~1000 FT AGL, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE, FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW
FEATURE DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING NORTHEAST ATOP THE LOWER LAKES,
PLACING UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND STOUT PRESSURE RISES (UPWARDS OF 1-2MB/HR) WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS REACHING 25-35 KTS GUSTING 45-50
KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ADJACENT LAKESHORES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL AS ENSEMBLES
(NBM AND ENS) HAVE DECREASED THE PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN
THE CENTRAL LAKE (20-50% CHANCE) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DON'T HIGHLIGHT
MIXING INTO ANY 50 KTS GUST LAYERS.
AS WINDS SETTLE LATE FRIDAY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, REACHING THE MID TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WHILE SOME LAKESHORES MAY REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS FALL. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM UP / FIRE WEATHER
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND'S FIRE WEATHER
SETUP, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 50-75% CHANCE FOR S TO SW WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 MPH IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
UP AND MINIMUM RHS FALLING TO NEAR 30% IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL. LUCKILY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLATED TO PEAK INTO THE 60S.
FIRE PARTNERS AND ADJACENT PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS CONTAINMENT AND MOP UP EFFORTS FOR ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY
STILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR BY THIS EVENING AND VLIFR
CIGS AT CMX. WINDS SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP START TO
LIFT CIGS WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
RAIN PUSHES OUT DURING THE MORNING BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER LOW LEVELS HELP TO
LIFT CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT
SOUTHERLY INTO THE DAYTIME, GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WORKS THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND RAPID
PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITH
GUSTS REACHING 40-50 KTS IN THE CENTRAL LAKE FRIDAY MORNING. GALES
OF 35-45KTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILD BETWEEN 15-20 FEET, HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
LAKESHORES. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE LAKE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ON FRIDAY. WINDS
BRIEFLY FALL BACK FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SHIFTING OVER TO THE SW, BUT
THEN SW GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE AS
EARLY AS 12Z SATURDAY (50% CHANCE), LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
WINDS QUICKLY FALL BACK BELOW 20KTS INTO MONDAY.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK, AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WHIPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAY AND LAKE LATE TONIGHT
TO EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 35-40 KTS
FRIDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING BETWEEN 5-8 FT. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE
BELOW GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL N
LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY FALL BACK BELOW
20KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SW, BUT THEN
GUSTS PICK UP TO 20-25KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GALES POSSIBLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY (50% CHANCE). WINDS QUICKLY FALL BACK BELOW 20KTS INTO
MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ241-242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ245>248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...BW/LC
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW/LC
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