112
FXUS63 KMQT 152352
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL HAS RETURNED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY N TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. NORTHERLY GALES
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED, CREATING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 13-17 FT.
- DRY AIR AND INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BACK ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
AS A LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PHASES WITH ANOTHER LOW
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAINFALL BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST BY IRONWOOD AS OF THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING. AS THE LOWS BECOME A NEW, PHASED LOW OVER
LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON TONIGHT, EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM,
EXPECT A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS GUIDANCE SHOWS
GENERALLY AROUND HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID FALLING. HOWEVER, AS ROBUST
CAA CYCLES DOWN BEHIND THE PHASED LOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED RAINFALL TO PICK UP OVER THE NORTH WIND BELTS,
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO PURE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND DELTA-TS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT GOING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THE LAKE ENHANCED AND EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID TO THE
NORTH WIND BELTS, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING A 15 TO 40% CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH AND A
HALF OF LIQUID BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST REFS RUN). WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING FOR THE
WEEKEND, EXPECT THE LAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO WRAP UP
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE LAST NOTE ON THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS: THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOWFALL AS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
WRAP UP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD PRACTICALLY BE
NOTHING, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE COULD BE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES
OF THE SEASON.
WITH PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO STAY AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE WAA SEEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD COULD INDUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN
UPPER MI. THIS IS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR COMING IN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER (THINK 925MB LEVEL); WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD, ROBUST
MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD BRING RHS DOWN INTO THE 20
PERCENTS (LOWEST ON SATURDAY) AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH TO THE SFC (STRONGEST ON SUNDAY). IN ADDITION, POOR RH
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. SATURDAY NIGHT (<80%
MAXRH). WHILE THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP ALLEVIATE DROUGHT
CONCERNS, WITH PLENTY OF DEAD LEAVES BEING ADDED TO THE SFC AND THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY REMOVED AFTER THE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, WE COULD SEE SOME CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, AS
REMINDER, YOU SHOULD OBEY ALL BURN BANS IN PLACE IF YOU ARE UNDER
ONE (WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.DNR.STATE.MI.US/BURNPERMITS). IN
ADDITION, AVOID POWER EQUIPMENT THAT CREATES SPARKS, AND FOR
SMOKERS, PLEASE PROPERLY DISCARD YOUR CIGARETTES, CIGARS, ETC. WHILE
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER DECREASES ONCE WE ENTER THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK DUE TO CALMER WINDS, WE COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY DRY SFC CONDITIONS STILL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (MINRHS DOWN
TO 30%). RAINFALL MAY FINALLY RETURN BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PHASING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN
HAS RESULTED IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE
REGION. THIS ALSO LOWERED CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TO MVFR THIS
EVENING. FURTHER DETERIORATION DOWN TO IFR IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF LIFR AT SAW/CMX INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL HELP START TO LIFT CIGS TO MVFR AT IWD/CMX BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER TO LAKE EFFECT. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS
PRESSING IN, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS STRENGTHEN. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30-40 KTS BY MID MORNING, STRONGEST AT CMX. WINDS BEGIN
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP DIMINISHES AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING RAPIDLY INCREASE TO HIGH-END NORTHERLY GALES UP TO 45
KTS FRIDAY MORNING AS ROBUST CAA DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND WAVES BUILDING UP TO 13 TO 17 FT (HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE), A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
LAKE FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, WHILE NOT EXPECTED, THERE IS UP TO A 15%
CHANCE THAT A STORM FORCE GUST OR TWO COULD BE SEEN IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE NEAR MARQUETTE AND AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
FRIDAY MORNING INTO MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KTS OR LESS
LATE. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE TIGHTENING
AND A LLJ COMING IN THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KTS, WITH THE LATEST
REFS SHOWING A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES OVER THE WEST HALF
OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY (HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY THE KEWEENAW). GALE CHANCES COULD INCREASE
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST LREF
SHOWS UP TO A 40 TO 80% CHANCE OF LOW END GALES BY THEN. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN
TO 20 KTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: LIGHT WINDS OF 15
KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY
GALES UP TO 35 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG CAA DROPS DOWN
FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL
IMMEDIATELY BE FOLLOWED UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING IN
FRIDAY NIGHT (WHICH WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA), WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LLJ
RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 TO 30 KTS, WITH A 20 TO 50% CHANCE OF GALES UP
TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LREF. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO 15 KTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING,
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ241-242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ245>248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP
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