521
FXUS63 KMQT 160652
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
252 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH
AND ITS TRAILING LAKE EFFECT REGIME, WILL LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL
TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN (3/4" OR HIGHER ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES) TODAY.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 45 KT ARE
FORECAST FOR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 35-40 KT FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOR EAST-CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AT 14-18 FT.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL RISK
FOR FIRE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOISTURE (BOTH IN
THE AIR AND IN THE FUELS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MIDNIGHT KMQT RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT WITH MORE
STRIATION PATTERNS OCCURRING WITH TIME TO INDICATED MESOSCALE BANDS
FORMING. THESE BANDS WILL LEAD TO SOME SPATIAL VARIATION IN THE
RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE TIME SYNOPTIC RAINFALL ENDS THIS MORNING AND
WE TRANSITION TO A LAKE EFFECT RAINFALL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, A
1005MB LOW IS TRAVERSING THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AS 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE MT/WY/SD TRIPOINT. ALOFT, THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
POSITIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND THE HIGH
IS SUPPORTED BY A RIDGE AXIS MOST PROMINENT OVER THE CANADIAN AND
NORTHERN US ROCKIES (WHICH SITS ATOP A MONSOON TROUGH OVER SAN
DIEGO). WITH THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH AND THE TROUGH ITSELF
BEING TILTED WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW, THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND, AND DESPITE THE HIGH
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WITH TIME, THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL KEEP THE
POST-LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG. THIS WILL DRIVE GUSTY WINDS, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ISALLOBARIC WINDS (GFS SHOWS UP TO 10MB/6HR RISES
TODAY) AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AS WELL. MEAN PEAK SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE HREF BY NOON
TODAY ARE 35-40 MPH OVER LAND AND 40-45 MPH AT AND AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS A RESULT. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AROUND -4 TO -8 C OVER A LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS AROUND 10-12 C,
INDUCING UP TO 200 J/KG OF INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
PER THE NAM. AS RIDGING ALOFT SPILLS INTO THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION, LAKE EFFECT RAIN (AND EVEN A
10-20% CHANCE OF THE FIRST FEW SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON, NO
ACCUMULATION FORECAST) WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, ENDING ALTOGETHER SATURDAY. BY 06Z SATURDAY, MEAN HREF
QPF IS HIGHEST (0.75"+) ALONG AN ARC FROM THE US41/US141 SPLIT, UP
TO THE MOUNT ARVON/EAGLE MINE VICINITY, AND DOWN TO PALMER, WITH THE
AREAS SURROUNDING THIS ARC SEEING AROUND A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND
THE REST OF THE UP STILL SEEING A WETTING RAIN (ABOUT 0.1"-0.33"),
THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO BUST THE DROUGHT. STILL, 2 OF THE 3
LARGEST ONGOING WILDFIRES ARE WITHIN THIS ARC, WHICH THE RAIN WILL
HELP KEEP THE FIRE BEHAVIOR DOWN, THOUGH IT WILL ALSO COMPLICATE
ACCESS TO THE FIRE FURTHER (MUDDY ROADS, SLICK EXPOSED ROCK, LOW
CEILINGS FOR AVIATION SUPPORT, ETC).
DESPITE RAINFALL ENDING SATURDAY, THIS WEEKEND WILL STILL CARRY SOME
WEATHER IMPACTS. ATOP THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING
AND COMPACT TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO HUDSON BAY. WHILE THE TROUGH
AND RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO DELIVER
FURTHER PRECIPITATION TO THE UP FOR THE BACK END OF THIS
WEEKEND, THE LOW (AROUND 986 MB OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON PER THE GFS) WILL SQUEEZE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTER AGAINST THE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH THE GFS RESOLVES AT
1035 MB OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN EURO
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUSTS OVER THE UP OF 25-35 MPH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BOTH AFTERNOONS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, PAIRED WITH
LREF CHANCES OF SUB-30% RHS AT UP TO 25%. THIS COMBINATION OF
DRY AND WINDY WEATHER COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN WORSENING
WILDFIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE RH
FORECAST IS LOW AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FUEL MOISTURES (THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING "WAS WET WEATHER THIS WEEK ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THE FUELS IN A MEANINGFUL WAY?"), SO THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BEAR MONITORING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MORE CONSISTENT RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL BRING
QUIETER WEATHER (CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL BUT THIS TIME WITH
LIGHTER WINDS) FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
THE 60S (PERHAPS LOWER FOR THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES)
AND LOWS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE INTERIOR AND 40S CLOSER TO
THE SHORES. THE NEXT BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE WITH
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE IN THE BACK HALF
OF THE WEEK, BUT DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
PARENT TROUGH RESULTS IN THE PEAK IN POPS IN THE NBM BEING AROUND
35% WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TRACKS EAST, A COLDER AIRMASS
PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS TRANSITIONS LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR WORKING IN THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY LIFTS
AND SCATTERS OUT LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS, RETURNING ALL
SITES TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING OUT OF THE NORTH TO 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KTS, STRONGEST AT CMX. WINDS TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST, SETTLING BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING RAPIDLY INCREASE TO HIGH-END NORTHERLY GALES UP TO 45
KTS FRIDAY MORNING AS ROBUST CAA DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND WAVES BUILDING UP TO 13 TO 17 FT (HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE), A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
LAKE FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, WHILE NOT EXPECTED, THERE IS UP TO A 15%
CHANCE THAT A STORM FORCE GUST OR TWO COULD BE SEEN IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE NEAR MARQUETTE AND AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
FRIDAY MORNING INTO MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KTS OR LESS
LATE. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE TIGHTENING
AND A LLJ COMING IN THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KTS, WITH THE LATEST
REFS SHOWING A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES OVER THE WEST HALF
OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY (HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY THE KEWEENAW). GALE CHANCES COULD INCREASE
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST LREF
SHOWS UP TO A 40 TO 80% CHANCE OF LOW END GALES BY THEN. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN
TO 20 KTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: LIGHT WINDS OF 15
KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY
GALES UP TO 35 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG CAA DROPS DOWN
FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL
IMMEDIATELY BE FOLLOWED UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING IN
FRIDAY NIGHT (WHICH WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA), WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LLJ
RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 TO 30 KTS, WITH A 20 TO 50% CHANCE OF GALES UP
TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LREF. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO 15 KTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING,
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241-242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ245>248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP
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