137
FXUS63 KMQT 161739
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND MAY CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOISTURE
(BOTH IN THE AIR AND IN THE FUELS).
- GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
- EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MIDNIGHT KMQT RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT WITH MORE
STRIATION PATTERNS OCCURRING WITH TIME TO INDICATED MESOSCALE BANDS
FORMING. THESE BANDS WILL LEAD TO SOME SPATIAL VARIATION IN THE
RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE TIME SYNOPTIC RAINFALL ENDS THIS MORNING AND
WE TRANSITION TO A LAKE EFFECT RAINFALL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, A
1005MB LOW IS TRAVERSING THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AS 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE MT/WY/SD TRIPOINT. ALOFT, THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
POSITIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND THE HIGH
IS SUPPORTED BY A RIDGE AXIS MOST PROMINENT OVER THE CANADIAN AND
NORTHERN US ROCKIES (WHICH SITS ATOP A MONSOON TROUGH OVER SAN
DIEGO). WITH THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH AND THE TROUGH ITSELF
BEING TILTED WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW, THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND, AND DESPITE THE HIGH
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WITH TIME, THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL KEEP THE
POST-LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG. THIS WILL DRIVE GUSTY WINDS, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ISALLOBARIC WINDS (GFS SHOWS UP TO 10MB/6HR RISES
TODAY) AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AS WELL. MEAN PEAK SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE HREF BY NOON
TODAY ARE 35-40 MPH OVER LAND AND 40-45 MPH AT AND AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS A RESULT. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AROUND -4 TO -8 C OVER A LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS AROUND 10-12 C,
INDUCING UP TO 200 J/KG OF INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
PER THE NAM. AS RIDGING ALOFT SPILLS INTO THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION, LAKE EFFECT RAIN (AND EVEN A
10-20% CHANCE OF THE FIRST FEW SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON, NO
ACCUMULATION FORECAST) WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, ENDING ALTOGETHER SATURDAY. BY 06Z SATURDAY, MEAN HREF
QPF IS HIGHEST (0.75"+) ALONG AN ARC FROM THE US41/US141 SPLIT, UP
TO THE MOUNT ARVON/EAGLE MINE VICINITY, AND DOWN TO PALMER, WITH THE
AREAS SURROUNDING THIS ARC SEEING AROUND A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND
THE REST OF THE UP STILL SEEING A WETTING RAIN (ABOUT 0.1"-0.33"),
THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO BUST THE DROUGHT. STILL, 2 OF THE 3
LARGEST ONGOING WILDFIRES ARE WITHIN THIS ARC, WHICH THE RAIN WILL
HELP KEEP THE FIRE BEHAVIOR DOWN, THOUGH IT WILL ALSO COMPLICATE
ACCESS TO THE FIRE FURTHER (MUDDY ROADS, SLICK EXPOSED ROCK, LOW
CEILINGS FOR AVIATION SUPPORT, ETC).
DESPITE RAINFALL ENDING SATURDAY, THIS WEEKEND WILL STILL CARRY SOME
WEATHER IMPACTS. ATOP THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING
AND COMPACT TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO HUDSON BAY. WHILE THE TROUGH
AND RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO DELIVER
FURTHER PRECIPITATION TO THE UP FOR THE BACK END OF THIS
WEEKEND, THE LOW (AROUND 986 MB OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON PER THE GFS) WILL SQUEEZE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTER AGAINST THE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH THE GFS RESOLVES AT
1035 MB OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN EURO
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUSTS OVER THE UP OF 25-35 MPH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BOTH AFTERNOONS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, PAIRED WITH
LREF CHANCES OF SUB-30% RHS AT UP TO 25%. THIS COMBINATION OF
DRY AND WINDY WEATHER COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN WORSENING
WILDFIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE RH
FORECAST IS LOW AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FUEL MOISTURES (THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING "WAS WET WEATHER THIS WEEK ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THE FUELS IN A MEANINGFUL WAY?"), SO THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BEAR MONITORING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MORE CONSISTENT RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL BRING
QUIETER WEATHER (CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL BUT THIS TIME WITH
LIGHTER WINDS) FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
THE 60S (PERHAPS LOWER FOR THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES)
AND LOWS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE INTERIOR AND 40S CLOSER TO
THE SHORES. THE NEXT BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE WITH
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE IN THE BACK HALF
OF THE WEEK, BUT DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
PARENT TROUGH RESULTS IN THE PEAK IN POPS IN THE NBM BEING AROUND
35% WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 25-35 KTS AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UP IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEPENING
LOW TO THE EAST AND INCOMING SC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT SAW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT TAPERS OFF PRECIPITATION.
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES SLOWLY CLIMB TO VFR TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. STRONG WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
GREAT LAKES BASIN CONTRASTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL
DRIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND TO 35-40 KT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
GALE WARNINGS WHICH CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED OVER EAST-CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AT 14-18
FT. WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT, BUT INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES OF GALES VARY
BETWEEN MODEL SOURCES, BUT THE EURO ENSEMBLE GIVES ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 20-40% CHANCES OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH INCONSISTENCIES IN SPACE AND BETWEEN MODELS, WILL
ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR THIS WEEKEND, AND IF THEY ARE
NEEDED, MAY NEED TO BE SHORT-FUSED AS MORE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BUILD TO 6-10 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 8-12 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (LOCALLY HIGHER IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA). AS WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW 20 KT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WAVE
HEIGHTS ALSO GRADUALLY RELAX, FALLING BELOW 4 FT FOR THE US WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
FALLS BELOW 4 FT WAVES AROUND NOON MONDAY. QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVING AROUND THURSDAY, BUT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE WIND AND WAVE
FORECAST IS LOW. CHANCES OF GALES IN THE BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE
5-15%.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241-242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>250-265-
266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...GS
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