313
FXUS63 KMQT 170512
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
112 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
- GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
- EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AS CAA CEASES THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, EXPECT THE LAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO END
OVER THE EASTERN U.P. TONIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY COOL
(MELTING LAYER IS PRACTICALLY NOW AT THE SFC), NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND (MOSTLY) ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE REMAINING LIQUID TO BE RECEIVED ACROSS THE NORTH
WIND BELTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE ACROSS
UPPER MI THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DRIER AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LLJ RETURN TO THE AREA AND RHS
POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED (PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY
WHERE HIGHS ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO GET INTO THE 50S), THIS RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MITIGATED. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONCERNS STILL TO DEAL WITH AS WELL AS FALLEN LEAVES AT THE
SFC, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD BE REALIZED BY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS NEXT WEEK, FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE MAY HAVE A COLD FRONT SKIRT US AND BRING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WITH MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WE MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THIS LEAVES WIND
SPEED, DIRECTION, AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
LIGHT WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AT IWD/SAW ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WITH 20-30 KTS AT CMX. MOVING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INTRODUCING A LLWS THREAT AT
ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: NORTH GALES UP TO 40 TO POTENTIALLY 45 KTS OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KTS OR
LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. DON'T EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO STAY FOR LONG,
HOWEVER, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TIGHTENS AND
A LLJ APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH THE HELP OF SOME FUNNELING ALONG THE
BAYFIELD AND KEWEENAW PENINSULAS, A NARROW BAND OF GALES UP TO 35
KTS COULD RETURN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY (UP TO A 60%
CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE REFS). HOWEVER, AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NWS
DLH, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE
WATCH/WARNING FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, A SHORT-
FUSED GALE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN LAKE LATER TONIGHT
OR EVEN ON SATURDAY SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES INCREASE. A MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST GALES OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY; THE LATEST REFS HAS LOW-
END GALE CHANCES AT NEARLY 100% THEN. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO FALL BACK DOWN TO 20 KTS OR LESS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, POTENTIALLY EVEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: NORTHERLY GALES
UP TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WEAKEN TO 15 KTS OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. DON'T
EXPECT THE LIGHTER WINDS TO LAST ALL THAT LONG THOUGH AS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCOMING LLJ BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KTS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY EVEN
INTENSIFY A FEW KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND GALES UP TO 35
KTS COULD BE SEEN BY SUNDAY MORNING (UP TO A 90% CHANCE ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST REFS). HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN
TO 15 KTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AND TO REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY EVEN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...GS/77
MARINE...TAP
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