282
FXUS63 KMQT 170627
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
- GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CLEAR SKIES DOMINATED THE REGION THIS EVENING AND FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO FAR, THANKS TO DRY AIR AND RIDGING SPREADING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE TIME OF THIS PUBLISHING, LINGERING LAKE
INDUCED CLOUDS WERE MINIMAL ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED STREAMING INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN, EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR IN THE INTERIOR
WEST HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 20S. LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
30S TO MID 40S AND EAST HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. I'M EXPECTING
CONTINUED COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WITH MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LAKESHORE REGIONS
MOST LIKELY TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA TODAY. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PRESS
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MANITOBA SUNDAY, BEFORE EXITING EAST TOWARD
GREENLAND MONDAY. BEHIND THE NORTHERN MANITOBA LOW ON MONDAY,
RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE CANADIAN AND US PLAINS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN EXPANSIVE 1040-1030MB HIGH WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS/CANADA AS IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH DIVES OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT, HELPING TO REINFORCE RIDGING OVERHEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TODAY AND SUNDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION, CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM NEAR 0C TODAY AT 12Z TO ~14C BY 12Z SUNDAY, WILL
ENABLE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY AND 60S TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AIRMASS, WHERE DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW MANY
SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF TO SINK TO 25-30% RH TODAY AND 30S
ELSEWHERE, AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN EAST, A 985ISH MB LOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MANITOBA, AND A STRONG 925-850MB LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK OFF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON MIXING EACH DAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SOUTHWESTERLY 30-40
MPH GUSTS TO BE COMMON IN THE KEWEENAW TODAY WITH 20-25 MPH
ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE WIDESPREAD 30 MPH GUSTS WITH 35-40 MPH BEING MOST
LIKELY IN THE KEWEENAW, SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES, THE
MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS, NEAR LAKESHORES, AND NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES.
LATEST REFS AND NBM DOES SUGGEST 45MPH + POTENTIAL (35-60%) ALONG
THE WESTERN LAKESHORES OF KEWEENAW COUNTY SUNDAY, WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SUNDAY EVENING, AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AIRMASS ALOFT WILL STABILIZE, WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY
REMAINING BETWEEN +5 AND 10C, VARYING BY MODEL. THIS SHOULD YIELD
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
CLOSER TO 60F LAKESIDE, AND MAYBE UPPER 50S IN THE KEWEENAW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S SHOULD BE EXPECTED INLAND,
WITH 40S BY THE LAKESHORES. NEXT BEST SHOT OF RAIN, ALBEIT
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY LOW, COMES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THIS LEAVES WIND
SPEED, DIRECTION, AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
LIGHT WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AT IWD/SAW ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WITH 20-30 KTS AT CMX. MOVING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INTRODUCING A LLWS THREAT AT
ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN THIS EVENING, WITH ELEVATED
WIND OBSERVATIONS NOW ONLY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT. TODAY, WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND A
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. THE RESULTING INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
IN ADDITION TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET COINCIDING WITH CONTINUED
LAKE INSTABILITY, WILL SUPPORT WINDS CLIMBING TO 30-35KTS THIS
MORNING OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND 25-30KTS OVER THE
EAST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ISN'T SOLD ON GALES, BUT
GIVEN THE 850MB AIRMASS ISN'T EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE +5C UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE IS RUNNING +12C, SUSPECT THIS WINDOW WILL
SUPPORT SOME GALE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS, OPTED TO ISSUE A SHORT
DURATION GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR 11FT, MAINLY BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE
AND THE KEWEENAW, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CANADIAN WATERS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THIS
EVENING. THE SETUP WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING'S EVENT, MINUS
THE PRECEDING COLD AIRMASS - STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXING
THOUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE STRONGER. GIVEN THIS, OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LARGEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES SUGGESTED BY THE WW3 APPROACH 15FT BETWEEN
THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE, WITH 5-12FT ELSEWHERE. ONCE THE WINDS
SETTLE SUNDAY NIGHT BELOW 20KTS, ANTICIPATING THESE LIGHT WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEK.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED, WITH MAGNITUDES FROM THE
VARIOUSLY SITED OBSERVATION PLATFORMS RANGING FROM 5 TO 20KTS.
EXPECTING SIMILAR OR LIGHTER WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING, AT WHICH POINT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONGSIDE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SUPPORT WINDS CLIMBING TO 25-30KTS, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
LITTLE BAY DE NOC. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY
INCREASE SUNDAY THANKS TO A STRONGER GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. GALE
CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN BAY, BIG BAY
DE NOC, AND EAST OF THE GARDEN PENINSULA. LATEST NBM AND REFS PROBS
SUGGEST 40 PERCENT CHANCES OR HIGHER, WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS
TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BELOW 20KTS. BY MONDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT <15KT WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
/1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ243-244-263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ243-244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...GS/77
MARINE...JTP
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