411
FXUS63 KMQT 180526
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD 20+ MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KEWEENAW.
- SOUTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UP IS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST
DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
EDMONTON, CANADA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A 35-45 KT 850 MB LLJ HAS CREATED ELEVATED SW WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH IN THE
KEWEENAW. VERY DRY AIR ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT MIXING INTO A DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ALLOWED RHS ACROSS THE UP TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS MANAGING TO PLUMMET AS LOW AS 15-20%.
DESPITE THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX WINDS AND RH, TEMPS HAVE ONLY
PEAKED IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. PLUS, WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS HAVE HELPED MOISTEN SHORT TIME-LAGGED FUELS AS WELL AS
CURTAIL FIRE SPREAD ON THE RUGGED TERRAIN COMPLEX. SO, THERE MAY BE
A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK BUT HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. A SIMILAR SETUP PRESENTS ITSELF TOMORROW AS A SHARP
TROUGH AND AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF WAA AND GUSTY SW WINDS.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 14-16C WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT WARMER
TOMORROW, REACHING THE LOW 60S. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 40-
50KTS SHOULD KICK UP WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH UP WIDE. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50-90% CHANCE FOR GUSTS >40 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW
AND DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIMILAR MIXING INTO A DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT, SO IF RHS MANAGE TO FALL AS LOW AS THEY HAVE THIS AFTERNOON,
A MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY PRESENT ITSELF.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SUNDAY EVENING, AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AIRMASS ALOFT WILL STABILIZE, WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY
REMAINING BETWEEN +5 AND 10C, VARYING BY MODEL. THIS SHOULD YIELD
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
CLOSER TO 60F LAKESIDE, AND MAYBE UPPER 50S IN THE KEWEENAW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S SHOULD BE EXPECTED INLAND,
WITH 40S BY THE LAKESHORES. NEXT BEST SHOT OF RAIN, ALBEIT
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY LOW, COMES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
13-16Z SUN AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN BRINGS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45-50 KT AT FL015-020. WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AT THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON,
FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, OTHER THAN
ONGOING WIND CONCERNS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: GUSTY SW WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS
SEEN IN THE WESTERN HALF. A FEW GALES TO 35 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON
ELEVATED PLATFORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT BELOW GALES.
A NEAR COPY OF TODAY OCCURS TOMORROW, HOWEVER, GUSTS MAY BE A BIT
MORE ELEVATED WITH GALES BETWEEN 35-40 KTS (50-90% CHANCE, HIGHEST
NEAR ISLE ROYALE) IN THE WESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE. SIG WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILD BETWEEN 10-14 FT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SETTLE BELOW 35 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW 15 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
<25 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: GUSTY SW WINDS 20-
30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANGE FOR GALES OF 35
KTS (30-50% CHANCE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT <15KT WINDS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ243-244-263-
264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ245>249-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW
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