862
FXUS63 KMQT 181111
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD 25 TO 35 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MARQUETTE THIS MORNING.
- SOUTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY TODAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR, INCLUDING BY THE CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LAKESHORE.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
GOES 19 WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY POSITION UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE
FORWARD FACE OF A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS, NORTH OF A STOUT 1031MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A 986MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TRANSLATES TO THE FORECAST AREA BEING WITHIN
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW UNDER A MILD AND DRY AIRMASS. AT THE TIME OF
THIS PUBLISHING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE OBSERVED AT 20-25F OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION, YIELDING RH VALUES OF 35-50% IN MANY INTERIOR
WEST LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S, AND 15-20 MPH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF THIS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL COOLING
SHOULD OCCUR, BUT GIVEN THE RATE OF COOLING OBSERVED SO FAR, SUSPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES, BUT SUSPECT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 50-60%. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE
OVERHEARD 925-850MB 40-50KT LLJ EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE
REGION, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT MIXING DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO ELEVATED DRY AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, LIKELY SUPPORTING RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND WIDESPREAD 25-35
MPH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS. THE HREF, REFS, AND NBM HIGHLIGHT 45MPH OR
GREATER POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKESHORES NEAR EAGLE HARBOR AND THE
MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS. NOTABLY, BOTH THE HREF AND REFS FOCUS A SWATH
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY, WITH
AN IDEAL CROSS TERRAIN FLOW WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN POTENTIAL
ADIABATIC ACCELERATION DOWN INTO THE CITY OF MARQUETTE. GIVEN THE
PERPENDICULAR FLOW TO THE TERRAIN, FAVORABLE HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR MIXING, A CORE OF ~50KTS NEAR 925MB, AND CURRENT KMQT VAD
PROFILES INDICATING 40-50KTS AT 1000FT, OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE HIGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND CLOSER TO 60F LAKESIDE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
FOR THE COMING WEEK, WITH MAYBE UPPER 50S IN THE KEWEENAW. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S SHOULD BE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH 40S BY
THE LAKESHORES. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES IS WEDNESDAY, BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS RESULTS IN THE NEXT BEST SHOT OF RAIN COMING
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z (AND
THEN AGAIN BRIEFLY AT SAW TONIGHT), WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30 KT FORECAST. WINDS RELAX TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW 5 KT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT AT SAW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR,
WITH HIGHEST OBSERVATIONS SO FAR BEING 20-34KTS ACROSS THE WEST HALF
AND ALONG THE LAKESHORES WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR
TO NEARBY TERRAIN. INCREASING 925-850MB LLJ IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, RESULTING IN INCREASED GALE POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE OF THESE ELEVATED WINDS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT HOW MUCH OF
THE CORE OF ELEVATED WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE OPEN LAKE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE INHERITED GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
LAKE FOR TODAY. I DID OPT TO EXPAND GALE WARNINGS TO THE OPEN LAKE
ZONE JUST EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BIG BAY TO
MUNISING GIVEN AN IMPROVED SIGNAL FOR ADIABATIC WARMING/ACCELERATION
WITH CROSS PERPENDICULAR FLOW INTO THESE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE GALE POTENTIAL WILL END,
BUT SAR IMAGERY OF PAST SIMILAR DOWNSLOPING WIND EVENTS TEND TO
INCLUDE GALES ENDING 5-10NM INTO THE LAKE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN CONTINUE FALLING
OVERNIGHT. NEAR MIDNIGHT, WINDS LAKE-WIDE MAY BE BELOW 20KTS
FOLLOWED BY THESE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
COMING WEEK.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: SOUTHWEST WINDS
RANGE FROM 5 TO 30KTS AT OBSERVATION SITES IN AND SURROUNDING THESE
WATERS. ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH AN ENHANCED LLJ WILL CONTINUE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
WINDS TO 30-35KTS, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE WATERS ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR 15C, PER GLERL ANALYSIS, AND THE WARMING
850MB AIRMASS, OPTED NOT TO UPGRADE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GALE
FOR THE BAY, BUT DID MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE INHERITED GALES
FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS TO STARTING IMMEDIATELY. TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN BELOW 20KTS. BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT <15KT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ243-244-263-
264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ245>249-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JTP
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