542
FXUS63 KMQT 190502
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
102 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
- SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR MODEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES WITH MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS NORTH OF THE JET. AT THE
SURFACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WAS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO,
WITH THE U.P. SITTING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE THOUGH AS WARM, DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS WAS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST
UNDER STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS COVER AND MOISTURE WAS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE DRY, WARM LOW LEVEL
AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING MIXED TO THE SURFACE WAS
BRINGING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE U.P. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE UNSEASONABLY WARM, IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE U.P. THIS WILL
HELP SETTLE THE WINDS DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS, WARM AFTERNOONS (60S, 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE), AND COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LOWER SIDE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MITIGATED BY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL
TRENDS ARE FOR A RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
LINGERING BREEZY W TO SW WINDS CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE REGIONAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES
BY SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY <10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE GALES, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS DROPPING TO AROUND 30KT FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN
BELOW 20KT BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, LESS THAN
15KT, THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS
BACK TO THE LAKE, INCREASING TO AROUND 20KT. HIGH PRESSURE THAN
BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
OF 15KT OR LESS RETURNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS,
THROUGH GALE PROBABILITIES FROM THE EPS REMAIN VERY LOW (<10%) AT
THIS TIME.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: SOUTHWESTERLY
GALES WILL COME TO AN END LATE TOINGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREAFTER EXPECT LIGHT WINDS,
MAINLY LESS THAN 10KT, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...BW/GS
MARINE...NL
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