669
FXUS63 KMQT 190701
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES WV IMAGERY SHOW ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
STACKED WELL OVER A EASTWARD TRACKING SFC LOW AT 987 MB, DRAPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN UP. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING,
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS TEMPS APPROACH
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVERHEAD TODAY, YIELDING CALM AND QUIET
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE 5-15 F
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WHILE NOT A DEEP MIXED LAYER, COLD TDS ALOFT
MIXING DOWN WILL YIELD LOW RHS IN THE WESTERN UP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S. THAT SAID, WIND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT (GUSTS MAINLY
10 MPH OR LESS) PREVENTING ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. MORE
FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT YIELDS LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY, BUT RIDGING
REMAINS EXTENDED OVERHEAD YIELDING SIMILAR WEATHER TO TODAY. THAT
SAID, MINIMUM RH WILL BE HIGHER IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER, BUT NO PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT.
FROM THERE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN 5-15 F ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. THE
NEXT CHANCE (15-30%) COMES LATE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIP
CHANCES ARE LOW, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY (50-70%
CHANCE) ON SATURDAY, FREQUENTLY GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS FAVORED. A COOL DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH CAPTURED IN THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (~65%
CHANCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
LINGERING BREEZY W TO SW WINDS CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE REGIONAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES
BY SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY <10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST, KEEPING WINDS LARGELY BELOW 20
KTS THROUGH FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ON LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND ALONGSIDE ITS STRONGER COLD
FRONT BRING BACK A LONGER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, VEERING WEST FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. GALE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY ARE LOW (~20-30% CHANCE ON
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LESS THAN 10% ON LAKE MICHIGAN).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...77
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