314
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS 500MB MODEL HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE A TROUGH WAS
BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE PACIFIC.
OVERALL IT WAS A PLEASANT AFTERNOON FOR THE U.P. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY AND WINDS WERE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR
LESS.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S (10-15F ABOVE
AVERAGE) ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SOUTH AND CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW, MOVING ONSHORE OVER
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK. IT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE
AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THEREAFTER THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
POST-FRONTAL WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE FOR
DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY AT THIS
TIME AND PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
LOW, LESS THAN 15%. WITH THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (30% CHANCE) THIS WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
WIDESPREAD, APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF FOG OUT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS ON BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON LAKE
SUPERIOR, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONGSIDE ITS STRONGER COLD FRONT BRING BACK A LONGER PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, VEERING WEST
FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GALE PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY ARE LOW (~20-40% CHANCE ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LESS THAN 10%
ON LAKE MICHIGAN).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...77/NL
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