382
FXUS63 KMQT 200611
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
211 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE 500 MB ZONAL
FLOW SPANNING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. UPSTREAM, A
DEEP TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETS UP MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIVE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT, YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES. TDS
SUGGEST THAT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER WITH INTERIOR AREAS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S YET THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S (10-15 F ABOVE NORMAL). LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL (~5 F ABOVE NORMAL) COURTESY OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESSES TO
OFFSET THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WARMER AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA, BUT LIKELY ONLY RESULTS IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER OR BRIEF
PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LACKLUSTER AND
QUICK PASSING MOISTURE. PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP: <15%.
THE BETTER, ALBEIT STILL LOW, CHANCES FOR PRECIP (15-25%) HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST FORMS A CLOSED LOW AND SPINS RELATIVELY IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THE NOW DEEP TROUGH SPLITS,
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PIVOTING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
BY SATURDAY. THIS BROADER TROUGHING PATTERN THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN DISCREPANCIES ARISE IN THE
RESULTING SFC PATTERN. TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS ARE PRESENT. THE FIRST
SCENARIO: A DEEPER MORE PROGRESSIVE SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE UP. THE
SECOND SCENARIO: NOT QUITE AS STRONG OF A LOW WITH A SLOWER AND
FURTHER NORTH TRACK. BOTH SCENARIOS SET UP UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS
FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW (10-20F ABOVE NORMAL), BUT DETAILS ON WINDS ARE
MURKY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE PROGRESSIVE AND GUSTIER SOLUTION
IS PRIMARILY FAVORED BY THE GEFS (70%), BUT DOES HAVE ~20% OF THE
EPS MEMBERS. THIS SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS
AND SUBSIDENCE COMBINE FOR DRIER AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD,
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES, DRY AIR WILL KEEP CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION AT LESS THAN 15%.
EXPECT FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHERLY, ONLY
BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 10 KT AT SAW AND 15 KT GUSTS AT CMX, BOTH IN THE
EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS ON BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON LAKE SUPERIOR,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND ALONGSIDE
ITS STRONGER COLD FRONT BRING BACK A LONGER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 20-
30 KT WINDS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, VEERING WEST FOR SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GALE PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW (~20-40%
CHANCE ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LESS THAN 10% ON LAKE MICHIGAN).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...77/NL
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