811
FXUS64 KMRX 160814
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO START,
THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY.
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
WE START THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AND PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO
MAJOR DRYING TODAY BUT WE WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING, AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT STRONG, BUT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL CULMINATING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COLDER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THOUGH THE
PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL HAVE DECREASED ON THE
WEDNESDAY FROPA EVENT, DRIVEN BY THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE BRINGING
IN A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT DECAYS QUICKER. STILL A BIT OF CAPE
PRESENT, SO ADVERTISING A VERY LOW, BUT NONZERO, CHANCE OF THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A STEP DOWN
FROM WEDNESDAY'S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE LARGER TROUGH SYSTEM ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH
IN THE LARGER REGIME CHANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE IS NOT
TOO STRONG, BUT AN APPROACHING JET STREAK MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BROAD
LIFT TO FORCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OTHER THAN THAT THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, DRY AND DECEMBER COLD THAT IS. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WORST DAY TEMPERATURE WISE, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CLUSTERING AROUND A COLDER SOLUTION THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, SO THERE'S A CHANCE TRI-CITIES AND NORTH DON'T GET ABOVE
FREEZING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
WILL SEE MAINLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START AT CHA AND TYS, WHILE
TRI IS MORE LIKELY TO START WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. TYS/TRI
WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE
CHA WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE BUT SHOULD MAKE IT TO AT LEAST
MVFR, THEN ALL SITES WILL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 55 64 56 / 20 90 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 54 62 54 / 40 90 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 52 61 53 / 50 90 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 50 60 50 / 40 90 20 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....WELLINGTON
AVIATION...
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