033
FXUS64 KMRX 190542
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1242 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. MAINLY JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6HRS OR SO OF POPS TO COME IN LINE
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, AS WELL AS WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FOR THE LATTER, TRENDED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS WELL. OTHERWISE, THAT'S ABOUT IT. RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH
CLEARED THE AREA TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THERE'S LIKELY STILL SOME
SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE ONSET OF UPSLOPE FLOW
IS COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ABATE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THOUGH FOR DRY CONDITIONS THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH
TIME, TURNING INTO SHOWERS. TRENDING DRIER AFTER SUNSET INTO
TONIGHT.
2. COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL SEND DRIER AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AS WELL.
DISCUSSION:
LEFT OVER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE INITIAL LINE ARE ABOUT AT OUR
EASTERN CWA BORDER AT THIS TIME. SPS OR LESS LEVEL WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING. THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS FAR AS ANY
SORT OF WIND THREAT OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
OUT THERE DON'T HAVE ANY THUNDER WITH THEM. PEAK GUSTS ONLY
RECORDED IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S MPH, ESPECIALLY AT CHA, TYS, AND
SOUTHWEST VA. LOOKING AT HISTORICAL RAINFALL REPORTED SINCE THIS
MORNING, THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL FELL WEST OF THE PLATEAU
MAKING IT SEEM LIKE THE PLATEAU RUNG OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE. AS
MUCH AS OVER A HALF INCH MAXES WITH TODAY'S EVENT CURRENTLY, BUT
OF COURSE THAT MIGHT NOT CAPTURE THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM OVER AN
AREA WITHOUT REPORTING EQUIPMENT.
ANY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SOON END AND
TURN MORE SHOWERY BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END WEST TO EAST.
TOWARDS 00Z AND AFTER, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR ANYWHERE THAT MAY CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE.
DRY AIR AND THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES, WILL FOLLOW THE DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. 50S DEW POINTS
TODAY WILL DROP TO THE 30S AND 40S FOR THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY RANGE IN THE 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA, CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS RANGING IN THE 40S TO 50S AFTER HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON NEARING 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TURNING COLDER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET.
3. DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
4. MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION:
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH NO IMPACTS FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IF THIS FORECAST TREND CONTINUES, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
FLURRIES TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASING FOR CLOUDY, AND POTENTIALLY WET, CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
DRY, WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO LESSEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z BUT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 35 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 35 47 30 / 0 0 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 33 46 30 / 0 0 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 35 44 28 / 0 0 50 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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