523
FXUS64 KMRX 211123
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
1. COLD THIS WEEKEND.
2. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE.
DISCUSSION:
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER THIS MORNING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TO
15 KNOTS AT 850 MB. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL REALLY
TAPER OFF AS NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER. GENERALLY, ANOTHER
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2500 FEET FROM NOW (2AM EST) THROUGH THE MORNING.
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PLATEAU COUNTIES THE WINDOW FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAS PROBABLY CLOSED. TRI-CITIES REPORTED A TRACE OF
SNOW BUT OTHERWISE IT SEEMS LIKE ONLY FLURRIES HAVE FALLEN IN
THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON OBS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE, THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SUN ALERT!
2. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INCLUDING CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION:
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ON SUNDAY AS THE WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THE BIG ORANGE FIREBALL IN THE SKY WILL
MAKE TRIUMPHANT RETURN ON SUNDAY AS WE FINALLY LOOK TO KICK OUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. SO WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WONT TECHNICALLY BE THAT DIFFERENT COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY THE LIGHT WINDS AND SUN WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT
FEEL MUCH NICER THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED IN A WHILE. NOT A BAD WAY TO
START OUR SLOW PROCESSION OF LONGER DAYS OF SUNLIGHT AFTER WE'VE
PAST THE WINTER SOLSTICE.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS AS WINDS SLOWLY TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING HELPS WARM
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SECOND HALF OF CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REALLY BE LOSING ENERGY AND LIFTING OUT OF
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME, AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WE GET ON
CHRISTMAS DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN TENNESEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. CERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY'LL REMAIN WARM AND ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY.
SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 27 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 23 42 25 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 23 41 24 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 18 37 21 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
SHORT TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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