609
FXUS64 KMRX 292300
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
600 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
2. LIKELIHOOD OF SOME WIND-RELATED HEADLINES FOR THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SEEMS HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
PRODUCT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ONE JUST YET.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING
UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW OR VERY SHORTLY THEREAFTER. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
NBM WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AS IT ALIGNS WITH MOST
ALL GUIDANCE. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER
THE PLATEAU TOMORROW MORNING THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA IN OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH INCREASING H85 WIND FLOW AND POSSIBILTY OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO
RAINFALL MAY BE VERY LIGHT IN THE EAST, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-75/I-81 AND NORTH OF I-40 TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK TO
BE CONCERNING, WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MAYBE 0.75" TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
LASTLY, IN TERMS OF ANY WIND-RELATED HEADLINES, DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS WE'RE STILL A TOUCH OVER
24 HOURS OUT FROM THE ONSET OF THE EVENT AND I WASN'T CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN WHETHER WE'D NEED A WARNING OR ADVISORY. MODELS SHOW
35-40KT OF H85 FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
FRIDAY (TOMORROW NIGHT), WITH UPWARDS OF 50KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION OF THE H85 WIND FIELD ISN'T
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY FOR
THE MOMENT THAT THE SPEEDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE'LL LIKELY NEED
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
2. DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND.
4. ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION:
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING AND AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST. JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AND ALSO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS FRONT AFTER FRIDAYS
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT VCSH BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 58 52 63 / 0 30 60 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 54 46 61 / 0 50 60 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 33 52 44 61 / 0 50 70 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 58 44 57 / 0 60 60 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...JB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page