755
FXUS64 KMRX 310549
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1249 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
MINOR UPDATES TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AS
WINDS HAVE BEGIN TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED 61 MPH AT CAMP CREEK IN GREENE COUNTY
DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH A PEAK WIND OF 60 MPH AT COVE MOUNTAIN.
WE EXPECT PRIMARILY ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED 60-70 MPH GUSTS IN
THOSE FAVORED MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
2. STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY, SLOWLY DECREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
3. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ONLY 0.50 TO ABOUT 1.00 INCH.
DISCUSSION:
BAND OF THICKER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA AND MOVED
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SOME CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON, OR EARLY EVENING. THE
THICKER CLOUDS AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STILL LOOKS LIKE
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 850 MB FLOW ON NAM12 OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH OR SO IN THOSE AREAS. WILL UPDATE WIND
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IT. IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT THAN THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LATEST HRR AND NAM/GFS/EURO IS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT THE RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE LOW MORE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE TN/KY
BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL THEN
BE BETWEEN ABOUT 08-09Z UNTIL 18Z AND THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN ABOUT 0.5 AND 1.0 INCH
OF RAIN. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY WITH A LOW RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
FRIDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER
WIND ADVISORY ENDS AT 10 AM EST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. VERY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
2. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE AS WELL. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
ACROSS TN DURING THAT TIME, BUT THE GUIDANCE IS VERY MUCH NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THAT SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAINFALL AFFECTING OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS LOW. AS SUCH, UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, INCLUDING KNOCKING OUT
THE SLIGHT POPS THE NBM HAD OVER SOME OF OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES
MON/TUE. NOT A HUGE CHANGE, BUT GIVEN THE SPREAD I DON'T THINK THE
RAIN CHANCES WERE WARRANTED.
THE BIGGER, BUT SHORTER, STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW AND WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE LOW 70S IN PLACES NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS GOING TO BE +15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WE MAY EVEN BE LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEEK'S END.
OTHERWISE, THERE'S SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW APPROACHING BY THU/FRI NEXT WEEK SO PERHAPS CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
CONTINUES OFF AND ON. A STEADIER MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN THE RAIN MOVES OUT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS SEEN
ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM LOCAL RADAR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT TYS AND CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 42 60 43 / 100 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 41 57 39 / 100 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 38 56 39 / 100 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 40 54 39 / 100 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...MCD
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