608
FXUS64 KMRX 010534
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
2. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SHOULD SHIFT WINDS AND RAISE
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN AREAS. AS RAIN ENDS THERE WILL BE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN.
3. CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS BEHIND FRONT BUT COULD HAVE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CLOSED LOW HAS NOW MOVED INTO ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY THIS EVENING
AS IT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO EAST TN. RAIN IS
CONTINUING ACROSS EAST TN BUT ENDING TO THE WEST. RAIN SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KY AND
NORTHWEST TN AND WILL EXPAND AND MOVE IN TO EASTERN TN BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 03Z AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE. SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAYS
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING TODAY HAVE BEEN
ABOUT ONE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE GOTTEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
ON SATURDAY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TOO COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT SKIES SHOULD BREAK OUT AND TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE
MILD 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. VERY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION:
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A 850 MB RIDGE OVER FL EXTENDING
WESTWARD AND A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A FEW
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ON
TUESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY,
BUT CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW ON THIS CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE DUE TO THE VERY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME AS THE
OVERALL TREND CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW OUTLIERS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. LOOKING AT THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RECORD HIGHS
BROKEN. ONE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE
WILL HAVE, AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY.
AS THE 850 MB HIGH OVER FL SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, THE GULF
WILL OPEN UP AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
COULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP THE VALLEY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OH VALLEY. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
REMAINS QUITE BROAD THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TIMING (AND TSTM CHANCE) IS LOW WITH FEW WELL-DEFINED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. POPS WILL BE KEPT TO THE CHANCE RANGE.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-02 76(2016) 75(2016) 71(1989) 74(2016)
02-03 75(1986) 74(2020) 74(1989) 71(2020)
02-04 77(1927) 72(1986) 68(1986) 68(1992)
02-05 75(1890) 73(2008) 71(2008) 71(2019)
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING AT TYS AND TRI BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE FOR TYS AT THIS TIME. LINGERING RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 36 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 35 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...MCD
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