243
FXUS64 KMRX 011443 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
943 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV, SE KY, AND THE MIDDLE TN/KY BORDER, IDENTIFIED
BY A DEWPOINT GRADIENT, WIND SHIFT, AND CHANGE IN CLOUD STRUCTURE
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF TODAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. WE
WILL SOME SOME SCATTERING/CLEARING WITH TOP-DOWN DRY AIR
ADVECTION TOWARD SUNSET AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, BUT SINCE THE
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
2. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE
CLINCH RIVER IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. RADAR ESTIMATES FOR STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL ARE AROUND 4 INCHES IN WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
2 AM EST. SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. RAIN WILL END COMPLETELY BY SUNRISE. SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT BY SUNRISE. FLOODING OF
LARGER RIVERS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECEDE. SEE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
DETAILS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. VERY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION:
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK AS WE SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW NEAR OUR REGION IN THE MID
LEVELS, RIDGING AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL, HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE, AND WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT THE SURFACE. THESE WILL
ALL COMBINE TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WE COULD SEE SOME PASSING CLOUDS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THIS
WARM UP. TEMPERATURES WILL AT TIMES COME CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH ARE SHAPING UP TO BE OUR
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION TO THESE WARM TEMPERATURES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL ALSO SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HELPING TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITHOUT A
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS APPEARS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHES OUT AND ANOTHER, STRONGER, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THORUGH THE NORTHERN STATES. BUT CERTAINTY IS STILL LOW ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SMALL FLUCTUATION
WITHIN THE STRENGTH OF THE MAIN SYSTEM COULD MOVE THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK LOOK LIKELY TO STAY AROUND 1 INCH OR LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION, HOWEVER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-02 76(2016) 75(2016) 71(1989) 74(2016)
02-03 75(1986) 74(2020) 74(1989) 71(2020)
02-04 77(1927) 72(1986) 68(1986) 68(1992)
02-05 75(1890) 73(2008) 71(2008) 71(2019)
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
FOG IS BECOMING AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS. SO FAR, FOG HAS BEEN
PATCHY AND WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG AFTER SUNRISE. LOW MVFR
CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 40 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 51 36 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 34 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DGS
AVIATION...MCD
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