063
FXUS64 KMRX 020746
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
2. QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING WHICH CURRENTLY INCLUDES THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES. VISIBILITY WILL START IMPROVING BY 9
AM.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WEAK TROUGHING OR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE EAST COAST TODAY DRIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO AND SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND 30 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AS THE 850MB WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN CLEARING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TONIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
2. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
FLOW WILL EXHIBIT A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN, INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE TENNESEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. MULTIPLE JET
STREAKS TRAVERSING THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL
INDUCE CONVECTION COMMENCING FROM WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS FORECASTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE EXISTS A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS... HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FORMAL FORECAST. EXPECT THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE
60'S AND 70'S FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING:
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE JET STREAKS TRAVERSING THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY,
RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE CAPE
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS, WHICH INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NBM'S 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH REMAIN AT ONLY 40-50% FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD FLOODING STILL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
OF PLACES THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
A SMALL BREAK IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE JET STREAK
MIGRATES EASTWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES IS LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK IS PROJECTED TO INTENSIFY SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, LEADING TO AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
CONVECTION.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-02 76(2016) 75(2016) 71(1989) 74(2016)
02-03 75(1986) 74(2020) 74(1989) 71(2020)
02-04 77(1927) 72(1986) 68(1986) 68(1992)
02-05 75(1890) 73(2008) 71(2008) 71(2019)
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY. TYS IS ALREADY REPORTING VIS RESTRICTIONS. CHA AND TYS
WILL LIKELY HAVE VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AND MAY
BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NEAR TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 43 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 40 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 42 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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