907
FXUS64 KMRX 031726 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK EAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL
TIGHTEN, PRODUCING A SW WIND UP THE VALLEY THAT MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES, UP TO 20 MPH. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
AROUND 70 SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
PLEASANT EARLY FEBRUARY DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PATCHY VALLEY AND RIVER FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2. QUIET, MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY
TONIGHT, A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS
THIS MORNING RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WAA, TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT KEEPING TEMPS WARM WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
2. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
3. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST. FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL
FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, TUESDAY MORNING
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TUESDAY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST
AND AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP IN THE MIDWEST WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEAR TX/OK BRINGING A WARM FRONT NEAR KENTUCKY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE NORTH OF I-40 WITH ONE INCH OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS ABOVE ONE INCH WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES SINCE
THAT AREA RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN LAST WEEK. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SINCE THE WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATION MAY
CHANGE.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. IT LOOKS LIKE A
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING
ISSUES GIVEN THE WET SOILS NORTH OF I-40, PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.
WITH ZONAL FLOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING
THE RECORD HIGH WILL BE THURSDAY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-04 77(1927) 72(1986) 68(1986) 68(1992)
02-05 75(1890) 73(2008) 71(2008) 71(2019)
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
02-08 76(1937) 75(1937) 70(2001) 71(2009)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MAINLY WINDS WILL BE SW AROUND 8-10 KT. TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS,
MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER 10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME LIFTING COMING AFTER
18Z TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 71 53 73 / 0 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 66 50 68 / 0 0 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 62 45 64 / 10 10 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....MCD
AVIATION...DGS
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