822
FXUS64 KMRX 041527 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1027 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS THIS MORNING AS
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VALLEY, WHICH HAS ALSO IMPACTED TEMPERATURES. THE UNEXPECTED CLEARING
MAY BE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE PLATEAU, WHICH IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A N TO NW FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
850 MB. THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE WILL BE TO BETTER MATCH
SKY GRIDS TO THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER, AND RAISE TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-40, WITH MID/UPPER 60S IN SW VA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN MOUNTAINS AND SW VA.
2. DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
CURRENTLY A LAYER OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN IN OUR AREA UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A WARM START TO
TUESDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEY STAYING IN THE UPPER 40'S
OR LOWER 50'S THROUGH SUNRISE. THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE UPSLOPE SIDES OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND APPALCHIANS, BUT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A
QUICK DRIZZLE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRY
AND BREAK UP, BUT MANY TIMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES CLOUDS
TEND TO LINGER LONGER THAN A LOT OF GUIDANCE INDICATES... SO WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING CLOUDS IN SLIGHTLY LONGER AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. EVEN WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WE'RE STILL
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY,
BUT IT WON'T LAST LONG BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS MOVES IN,
LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
2. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MORE RAIN WITH
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
4. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP IN THE MIDWEST WITH LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KS/OK BRINGING A WARM FRONT NEAR KENTUCKY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE NORTH OF I-40 WITH ONE INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS ABOVE ONE INCH WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES SINCE THAT
AREA RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN LAST WEEK. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SINCE THE WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATION MAY
CHANGE AND IT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. AGAIN, FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE AN
ISSUE GIVEN THE WET SOILS NORTH OF I-40, PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.
WITH ZONAL FLOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING THE RECORD
HIGH WILL BE THURSDAY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN IT MIGHT
BE DIFFICULT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
THE WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IF THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LIKE GFS IS PREDICTING, EURO HAS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-05 75(1890) 73(2008) 71(2008) 71(2019)
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
02-08 76(1937) 75(1937) 70(2001) 71(2009)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION, AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER
OF CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN THESE SCENARIOS CLOUDS TRADITIONALLY ARE
STUBBORN OVER THE REGION, SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO WHEN CLOUDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND LIFT OUT. EXPECT WE COULD SEE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 53 68 59 / 0 10 50 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 48 67 57 / 10 10 60 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 48 64 57 / 0 10 60 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 41 59 49 / 10 10 40 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....MCD
AVIATION...DGS
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