279
FXUS64 KMRX 041915
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
215 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.
2. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS ERODED MOST OF THE MORNING CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER, TRI HAS ALREADY EXCEED THE RECORD
HIGH OF 68, AND TYS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 72 BEFORE
SUNSET. THROUGH THE NIGHT, WE WILL SEE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING,
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER AL AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE
AREA, LIKELY STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR SW, ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE AL/GA BORDER AREA WHERE IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE. THE FRONT WILL BLUGE NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN TOMORROW AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE
OZARKS, TAKING ON A N/S ORIENTATION NEAR THE PLATEAU, WITH MOST OF
OUR AREA ON THE EASTERN, MORE STABLE, SIDE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND SPREAD NE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE ELEVATED,
AND ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE PLATEAU WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND
HAVE A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST QPF IN WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON EVENING, SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN HALF LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE WINDS ALOFT FROM THE LLJ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS VA/NC AND THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
STRONG GUSTS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LATER FORECASTS
IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. SATURATED LOCATIONS HAVE A VERY LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES, THOUGH REPEATED RAIN EVENTS MAY RAISE THIS RISK
LATER.
3. STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY SMOKY MOUNTAINS,
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
4. SEASONABLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FAST AND
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARRIVES MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THANKS
TO THE UPPER JET BEING ANCHORED ABOVE OR NORTH OF US, WE'LL CONTINUE
TO ENJOY THE FLOOD OF MILD AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, BEFORE TURNING MORE SEASONABLE ON MONDAY. TO GET THERE
THOUGH, A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. FIRST
ONE COMES THURSDAY NIGHT, SECOND ONE ON SUNDAY. EACH BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IN BETWEEN THE TWO COLD
FRONTS, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP SATURDAY BE A RATHER
WARM DAY, WITH DAILY RECORDS WITHIN REACH.
DESPITE THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FARTHER AWAY
RELATIVE TO OUR FAVORABLE WIND CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO DISPLAY 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT THE 850 LAYER FLOWING
PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SMOKIES, WITH THE NBM SHOWING HIGH
(70%) PROBABILITIES OF A WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RUN COOLER TO START THE WORKWEEK AND WHILE IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS
LIKELY IN THE WORKS, WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WITH
REPEATED BOUTS OF RAINFALL SETTING UP, LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE MOST AT RISK FOR REPEATED BOUTS OF
HIGH WATER, THOUGH GREATER IMPACTS THAN JUST LOW LEVEL FLOODING ARE
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT RELIEF LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
02-08 76(1937) 75(1937) 70(2001) 71(2009)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, CLEAR TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVIL AT ALL SITES. BRIEF GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MVFR LEVELS AT CHA AND TYS, BUT A
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP TRI AT VFR LEVELS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TRI CIGS BUT WILL GO VFR FOR THIS TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 53 68 59 / 0 0 60 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 48 67 57 / 10 0 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 48 64 57 / 0 0 40 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 41 59 49 / 10 0 20 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....WELLINGTON
AVIATION...DGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page