741
FXUS64 KMRX 050533
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1233 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
SKIES WERE STILL MOSTLY CLEAR AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MILD
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND WINDS WERE LIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST WITH LOWER CLOUDS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.
2. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS ERODED MOST OF THE MORNING CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER, TRI HAS ALREADY EXCEED THE RECORD
HIGH OF 68, AND TYS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 72 BEFORE
SUNSET. THROUGH THE NIGHT, WE WILL SEE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING,
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER AL AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE
AREA, LIKELY STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR SW, ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE AL/GA BORDER AREA WHERE IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE. THE FRONT WILL BULGE NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN TOMORROW
AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
THE OZARKS, TAKING ON A N/S ORIENTATION NEAR THE PLATEAU, WITH
MOST OF OUR AREA ON THE EASTERN, MORE STABLE, SIDE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND
SPREAD NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE
ELEVATED, AND ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE PLATEAU WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AND HAVE A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST QPF IN
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHERN HALF LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE WINDS ALOFT FROM THE LLJ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS VA/NC AND THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
STRONG GUSTS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LATER FORECASTS
IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. SATURATED LOCATIONS HAVE A VERY LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES, THOUGH REPEATED RAIN EVENTS MAY RAISE THIS RISK
LATER.
3. STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY SMOKY MOUNTAINS,
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
4. SEASONABLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FAST AND
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARRIVES MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THANKS
TO THE UPPER JET BEING ANCHORED ABOVE OR NORTH OF US, WE'LL CONTINUE
TO ENJOY THE FLOOD OF MILD AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, BEFORE TURNING MORE SEASONABLE ON MONDAY. TO GET THERE
THOUGH, A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. FIRST
ONE COMES THURSDAY NIGHT, SECOND ONE ON SUNDAY. EACH BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IN BETWEEN THE TWO COLD
FRONTS, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP SATURDAY BE A RATHER
WARM DAY, WITH DAILY RECORDS WITHIN REACH.
DESPITE THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FARTHER AWAY
RELATIVE TO OUR FAVORABLE WIND CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO DISPLAY 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT THE 850 LAYER FLOWING
PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SMOKIES, WITH THE NBM SHOWING HIGH
(70%) PROBABILITIES OF A WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RUN COOLER TO START THE WORKWEEK AND WHILE IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS
LIKELY IN THE WORKS, WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WITH
REPEATED BOUTS OF RAINFALL SETTING UP, LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE MOST AT RISK FOR REPEATED BOUTS OF
HIGH WATER, THOUGH GREATER IMPACTS THAN JUST LOW LEVEL FLOODING ARE
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT RELIEF LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
02-08 76(1937) 75(1937) 70(2001) 71(2009)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST WED FEB 5 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD FILL IN MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES COULD IMPACT AN
AIRPORT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAFS, BUT CERTAINTY IS
LOW DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED STORMS. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 59 72 57 / 70 70 40 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 57 69 52 / 40 90 80 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 57 67 50 / 40 90 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 50 67 48 / 30 80 80 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....WELLINGTON
AVIATION...
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