571
FXUS64 KMRX 130536
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
136 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED,
AND WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND FROSTY NIGHT. JUST A
FEW TWEAKS MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THIS
UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
2. DRY AND MUCH WARMER SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION:
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE FOR THE AREA FROM KNOXVILLE
NORTHEAST BUT IS FINALLY CLEARING ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THIS
REGION AT MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND 40S IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED.
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST,
CENTERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT
AND THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS DROPPING
TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT AROUND KNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE BIGGER TWO CITIES
WITH MORE PATCHY FROST NEAR KNOXVILLE. A HARD FREEZE DOESN'T LOOK
LIKELY, BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD REACH THE THRESHOLD.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD;
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED OR NOT
BROUGHT INSIDE.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST FROM MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA LATE BUT WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO IL BY SUNSET SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
WARMER AND NEAR AVERAGE AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND
THERE WILL BE FULL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SOME SEESAWING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. THUNDER POSSIBLY EMBEDDED IN RAIN, BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOOK
VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION:
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. BY MONDAY, FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER THE REGION AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY WILL NOT BE FREQUENT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S EXPECTED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY DRY WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY IN NBM GUIDANCE. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER WITH A SYSTEM TO THE WEST TO START THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN BUT OVERALL NOT AS COLD AS THIS PAST WEEK.
THE COLDEST NIGHTS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ADVISORY (40 MPH GUSTS) LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH,
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS STAY BELOW THE 40 MPH GUST
THRESHOLD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE TERM. WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER
TODAY, THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL DECK
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE KEPT CONSISTENCY
FROM 00Z ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 50 81 52 / 0 0 0 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 43 77 49 / 10 0 10 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....MCD
AVIATION...KS
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