926
FXUS64 KMRX 130735
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARMER TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
2. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED, BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AS IT SLIDES EAST TODAY, RESULTING
IN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. FLOW WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTING THE WARM-UP. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SUPPRESSED TO OVER FLORIDA OR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY, AS A CLOSED LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY,
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS, DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD,
PRECIPITATION ISN'T EXPECTED, EXCEPT MAYBE SOME CLOUDS MIXING IN
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COME IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MARKEDLY WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WE DO START COLD WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE AS WE GET PAST SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, THEY'LL BECOME A BIT
ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES FROM THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL KEEP
FROST AS BAY MONDAY MORNING. MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES
IN THE 40S AND 50S FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BORING WEATHER WISE.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN WILL BE
REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA, FORMING A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MON
IN THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. RAINFALL WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT, EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE OF
SEEING +0.25" OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW 0.15-0.20" AMOUNTS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH SO DON'T EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
H85 TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING SO IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ON TUE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AGAIN, THAT DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY AND THE LACK OF POPS IN
THE FORECAST REFLECT THAT.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU,
BUT THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THAT
TIME SO NWLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
AS SUCH, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE GRADUAL. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW AND DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA
DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. BY LATE FRIDAY THE WESTERN LOW CUTS
OFF WHILE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE
GREAT LAKES, FLATTENING THE EASTERN RIDGE. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE MON NIGHT/TUE FRONT. BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WIND UP JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT BENEATH THAT FLATTENED RIDGE. NBM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH POPS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HOLDS SOME LOW-END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW,
BUT SUSPECT WE'LL WIND UP SEEING FURTHER DECREASES IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY IF TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE TERM. WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER
TODAY, THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL DECK
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE KEPT CONSISTENCY
FROM 00Z ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 51 83 55 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 43 76 50 / 10 0 10 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...KS
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