481
FXUS64 KMRX 131723
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS LATE MORNING FROM THE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AT AROUND SUNRISE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EASTWARD TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD TO REACH THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AT
CHATTANOOGA. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. UPDATED FORECAST SENT AS FROST NOW HAS ENDED WITH
THE RISING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARMER TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
2. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED, BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AS IT SLIDES EAST TODAY, RESULTING
IN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. FLOW WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTING THE WARM-UP. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SUPPRESSED TO OVER FLORIDA OR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY, AS A CLOSED LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY,
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS, DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD,
PRECIPITATION ISN'T EXPECTED, EXCEPT MAYBE SOME CLOUDS MIXING IN
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COME IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MARKEDLY WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WE DO START COLD WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE AS WE GET PAST SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, THEY'LL BECOME A BIT
ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES FROM THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL KEEP
FROST AS BAY MONDAY MORNING. MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES
IN THE 40S AND 50S FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BORING WEATHER WISE.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN WILL BE
REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA, FORMING A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MON
IN THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. RAINFALL WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT, EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE OF
SEEING +0.25" OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW 0.15-0.20" AMOUNTS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH SO DON'T EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
H85 TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING SO IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ON TUE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AGAIN, THAT DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY AND THE LACK OF POPS IN
THE FORECAST REFLECT THAT.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU,
BUT THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THAT
TIME SO NWLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
AS SUCH, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE GRADUAL. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW AND DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA
DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. BY LATE FRIDAY THE WESTERN LOW CUTS
OFF WHILE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE
GREAT LAKES, FLATTENING THE EASTERN RIDGE. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE MON NIGHT/TUE FRONT. BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WIND UP JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT BENEATH THAT FLATTENED RIDGE. NBM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH POPS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HOLDS SOME LOW-END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW,
BUT SUSPECT WE'LL WIND UP SEEING FURTHER DECREASES IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY IF TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING TODAY. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES, THOUGH THEY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. TONIGHT, WHEN SURFACE CONDITIONS BECOME CALM, A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD LEADING TO POSSIBLE WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. WIND SHEAR IS IN THE TYS AND TRI FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY MONDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 83 55 67 / 0 0 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 81 53 63 / 0 0 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 81 52 64 / 0 0 60 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 76 50 60 / 0 10 70 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...TD
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