360
FXUS64 KMRX 131923
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
323 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH SUNSET, BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
2. WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING UP WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
3. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES LATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED EAST TODAY AND WINDS HAVE BECOME
WESTERLY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAY MOVE OVER WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING.
THE WARMING TREND TODAY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH TO FLORIDA OR THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE LATE TODAY. A CLOSED LOW HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEEPENS
MONDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
MONDAY BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE SMOKIES
AND OTHER LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
KEEP MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH VALUES IN THE 40S AND
50S. DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS WINDS PICK UP TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA LATE MONDAY DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BY
STATES MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
3. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DISCUSSION:
BY MONDAY NIGHT, FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE REGION AS A CLOSED
LOW MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE LOW AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY
IN NBM GUIDANCE. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD NEXT
WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. ALTHOUGH,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THAT FAR OUT
TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN BUT OVERALL NOT AS COOL AS LAST WEEK. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ADVISORY (40 MPH GUSTS) LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE
40 TO 45 KNOTS AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH, WINDS MAY STAY BELOW THE 40 MPH
GUST THRESHOLD SINCE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY AND NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING TODAY. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES, THOUGH THEY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. TONIGHT, WHEN SURFACE CONDITIONS BECOME CALM, A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD LEADING TO POSSIBLE WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. WIND SHEAR IS IN THE TYS AND TRI FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY MONDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 84 56 67 / 0 0 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 81 54 64 / 0 0 60 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 81 52 65 / 0 0 60 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 76 50 60 / 0 10 80 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....MCD
AVIATION...TD
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