444
FXUS64 KMRX 141716
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
116 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
MORNING UPDATE TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY INTO THE
70S TO LOWER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOP SOUTH AND WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG WILL BE
OVER THE SW VIRGINIA COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. BEST TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE FROM
SUNSET OR 00Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE INTENSITY OF STORMS
WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. VERY WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
2. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT MAY BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF TN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
DISCUSSION:
INCREASING WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IS HELPING
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. THE LOWS MAY NOT
REACH WHAT WAS INITIALLY FORECAST, SO THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST WAS
CHANGED TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS.
A LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY INCREASING AT THIS TIME, WITH NEAR
50KT FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WESTERLY
DIRECTION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
AREA-WIDE. HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL TRANSITION TO A TROUGH EVENTUALLY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY WITH A NEARLY STACKED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES INTO CANADA AND EVENTUALLY EAST.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH OUR AREA BY
TONIGHT. NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE UNDER EITHER MRGL
TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACCORDING TO THE SPC. LOOKING AT
SIMU-REFLECTIVITY FROM A COUPLE OF CAMS, THE STRONGER STORMS
APPEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA MOVING EAST INTO
VIRGINIA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE. ACCORDING TO THE HREF,
MUCAPE OF OVER 1000 J/KG CLIPS OUR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION
AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE THREAT
DROPPING OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH LESSER INSTABILITY. UNIDIRECTIONAL
SPEED SHEAR OR STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE TORNADO THREAT
BEING THE LESS LIKELY ELEMENT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE THE LINE SHOULD BE AT ABOUT THE BORDER WITH
NC.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND.
2. BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
DISCUSSION:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE
PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE ISN'T OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT SHOWERS LINGERING
FOR TOO LONG BUT DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO AS WE'LL KEEP SOME JET ENERGY ALOFT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE
AFTERNOON BUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH IN. AS SUCH, COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUE AND
WED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AS THE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THERE'S SOME DISCREPANCY WITH HOW
THE PATTERN UNFOLDS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, I WOULD EXPECT FRI TO BE
DRY GIVEN HOW THE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE CONFIRM
THIS, WITH RAIN CHANCES NOW BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FRI. SATURDAY
MAY WIND UP BEING DRY AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, FLATTENING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO KENTUCKY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THAT SAID, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACTUALLY BUILDS NORTHWARDS ON SUN AS THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS SUCH THE NBM
DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH FOR SAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE TIME
BEING. BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN DEPICTED BY DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS, I
WOULDN'T BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN CHANCES COME DOWN FURTHER
FOR SATURDAY. I COULD EASILY SEE WHERE THE RIDGE STRENGTH IS ENOUGH
TO HOLD THE FRONT NORTH OF US. REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN CHANCES THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURE UP THE LOW 80S, OR ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
FOR FRI THROUGH SUN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRONT COULD
BRING SEVERE STRENGTH WIND GUSTS AROUND KTRI, BUT THE HIGHEST
THREAT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS
WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT, BUT RAMP BACK UP TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 55 67 42 / 0 40 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 53 64 40 / 0 70 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 53 64 40 / 0 60 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 50 60 39 / 10 80 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...
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